Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-06 09:58Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall methanol production has increased slightly as the output of the restored production capacity is more than the loss of the overhaul and production - reduction capacity. The inventory of inland enterprises has decreased due to lower logistics costs and increased trader pick - up enthusiasm. The port inventory has increased significantly as the ship entry and unloading speed has accelerated after the lifting of restrictions. The olefin industry's operating rate has slightly increased, and the MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2396 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 107 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 454,519 lots, down 29,728 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 91,385 lots, up 9,649 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,748, up 202 [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2385 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2105 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price spread is 280 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 11 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 268 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 246 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread is - 65 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.01 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.06 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 57.2 tons, up 2.5 tons; in South China ports, it is 23.64 tons, up 5.76 tons. The import profit is 43.8 yuan/ton, down 3.51 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 324,500 tons, down 15,300 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 85.36%, up 1.38% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 43.29%, up 5.55%; dimethyl ether is 5.33%, up 0.14%; acetic acid is 91.4%, down 1.29%; MTBE is 67.79%, down 1.22%; olefins is 85.27%, up 0.32%. The methanol - to - olefins disk profit is - 910 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 25.85%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility is 27.5%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.51%, down 0.42%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.52%, down 0.42% [2]. Industry News - As of August 6, the total methanol port inventory in China is 92.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons. East China and South China ports have both seen inventory increases. As of August 6, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 29.37 tons, a decrease of 3.08 tons, a 9.50% decline; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 24.08 tons, an increase of 1.01 tons, a 4.37% increase. As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 86.39%, a 0.32% increase [2].