Workflow
瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250806

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to increased zinc ore imports, rising processing fees, and higher sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits have improved, leading to increased production. However, the market is in a demand - off season, with weak downstream demand. The domestic social inventory is increasing, and the spot premium is falling. Technically, the position is decreasing, and the price is adjusting. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,380 yuan/ton, with a 0 change. The 08 - 09 month contract spread is - 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,750 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars/ton. - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 202,046 lots, a decrease of 3,569 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 3,416 lots, an increase of 118 lots. - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, a decrease of 14,807 tons. The SHFE inventory is 61,724 tons, an increase of 2,305 tons, and the LME inventory is 92,275 tons, a decrease of 4,725 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 22,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 22,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 13.16 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.29 dollars/ton. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS shows a monthly zinc supply - demand balance of - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons. ILZSG shows a monthly zinc supply - demand balance of - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons. - ILZSG's global zinc ore production in the current month is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons. Refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons. - The social inventory of zinc is 87,300 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons, and the sales volume is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. - The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters, and the completed housing area is 225.6661 million square meters, an increase of 41.8147 million square meters. - The monthly automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, an increase of 166,600 vehicles, and the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 13.56%, a decrease of 0.43%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 13.56%, a decrease of 0.43%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.22%, a decrease of 0.19%. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.61%, a decrease of 0.47% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, may choose the Fed chair through vacant governor positions, and will announce tariffs on drugs and chips within a week, and significantly increase tariffs on India. - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July was 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8. - Seven departments including the central bank will support new - style industrialization with finance and strengthen medium - and long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction [3].