有色金属日报-20250806

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★★☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market is still assessing the impact of the Codelco underground mine accident on the annual production target, with a risk of increased supply loss rate in the second half of the year. LME copper may decline to $9,500, and short positions should be held [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum, and there are opportunities in the price difference between the spot and AL. Alumina is under pressure and fluctuating, with limited downside [3]. - The fundamental situation of zinc is supply increase and demand weakness, but there is a high probability of a phased rebound. Wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and short positions should be actively entered [7]. - Shanghai tin is expected to be in a volatile market. High - level short positions should be closed and wait and see [8]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan [9]. - Industrial silicon futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [10]. - Polysilicon futures prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, with strong pressure around 55,000 yuan/ton and obvious support around 48,000 yuan/ton [11]. Summary by Metals Copper - Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated and closed up below the MA60 moving average. The current copper price is 78,350 yuan, with a premium of 100 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference has converged to 660 yuan. Pay attention to US trade data for June in the evening. The supply loss rate may increase in the second half of the year. LME copper may decline to $9,500, and short positions should be held [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, with a spot discount of 40 yuan in East China. Aluminum ingots have been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, and the apparent consumption in the off - season has decreased significantly year - on - year. However, the output of aluminum rods has increased month - on - month, and the inventory peak may appear in August. Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price has been raised by 100 yuan to 19,700 yuan. Alumina is under pressure and fluctuating, with limited downside [3] Zinc - The rebound trend of zinc is difficult to falsify. The short - selling of Shanghai zinc should reduce positions on dips. The fundamental situation is supply increase and demand weakness, but there is a high probability of a phased rebound. Wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The speculation on the "anti - involution" theme has cooled down, and nickel is returning to the fundamentals. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is still at a high level. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and short positions should be actively entered [7] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated with position reduction during the session. It is expected to be in a volatile market. High - level short positions should be closed and wait and see [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures prices are in a weak oscillation, and the market trading has shrunk. The total inventory has slightly decreased to 142,000 tons. The futures prices are expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures closed up strongly. The spot price is stable. In August, both supply and demand are increasing. The futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices continued to rise. The average price of SMM polysilicon re - feeding material is 47,000 yuan/ton. The prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, with strong pressure around 55,000 yuan/ton and obvious support around 48,000 yuan/ton [11]