国债期货日报：情绪有几许改善-20250806

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report suggests appropriate layout of long positions as the market sentiment shows signs of warming up [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Treasury bond futures opened slightly lower and then rose continuously, turning down and fluctuating lower in the afternoon, with the gains significantly narrowing at the end. The long - end was relatively weaker, the short - end contracts saw a catch - up rise, and the forward contracts continued to over - rise, narrowing the inter - period spread. The open market had 30.9 billion yuan in maturities and 13.85 billion yuan in new operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 17.05 billion yuan. Liquidity remained abundant, with the overnight price in the inter - bank market stable at around 1.3% and GC001 at around 1.5%. The capital sentiment index showed that small and medium - sized institutions and non - banks were relatively tighter, but the pressure was not significant [1] 2. Intraday News - Starting from September 29, South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists [2] - On August 5 local time, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced that the US State Department approved the sale of a batch of M777 howitzers and related equipment to Ukraine, along with maintenance services and support for this weapon, with an estimated value of $104 million [2] 3. Market Sentiment Analysis - There was a rumor of large banks buying bonds in the morning, which led to a strong market. Even without the rumor and despite the significant narrowing of gains in the afternoon, the market sentiment showed signs of warming up. The bond market was relatively desensitized to the strong performance of the stock market and commodities, maintaining gains under strong risk. Funds had continuous net subscriptions, and the net subscription scale expanded today [3] 4. Data Overview - Contract Prices and Changes: On August 6, 2025, TS2509 was at 102.37 (up 0.018 from the previous day), TF2509 at 105.78 (up 0.025), T2509 at 108.565 (up 0.015), and TL2509 at 119.34 (down 0.04) [4] - Contract Positions and Changes: TS contract positions decreased by 1087 to 108,202 hands, TF contract positions decreased by 959 to 186,234 hands, T contract positions decreased by 1346 to 236,282 hands, and TL contract positions decreased by 704 to 153,142 hands [4] - Base Spreads and Changes: TS base spread (CTD) was 0.0136 (up 0.0213), TF base spread (CTD) was 0.0031 (up 0.002), T base spread (CTD) was 0.0147 (down 0.1037), and TL base spread (CTD) was 0.1287 (down 0.21) [4] - Transaction Volumes and Changes: TS main contract transactions decreased by 3357 to 27,216 hands, TF main contract transactions decreased by 5520 to 47,098 hands, T main contract transactions decreased by 5077 to 64,393 hands, and TL main contract transactions decreased by 21334 to 78,797 hands [4] - Fund Rates and Changes: DR001 was 1.3143% (down 0.0003), DR007 was 1.4445% (down 0.0073), and DR014 was 1.4753% (down 0.0179) [4] - Fund Transaction Amounts: DR001 transaction amount was 2692.65767 billion yuan, DR007 was 9.570987 billion yuan, and DR014 was 1.444292 billion yuan, with no change from the previous day [4]