Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: The main contract futures price fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.75%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The market sentiment has warmed up, but the supply - demand pattern is weak, so the steel price is still under pressure. However, the low - inventory situation limits the downside space. It is expected to continue the fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [4]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract futures price showed a strong - side fluctuation, with a daily increase of 0.41%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Although the fundamentals have weakened under the situation of increasing supply and demand, production - restriction disturbances are fermenting, the real - world contradictions are not significant, and raw materials are relatively strong. The price is expected to continue the upward - fluctuating trend, and overseas risks should be monitored [4]. - Iron ore: The main contract futures price fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.06%, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. The demand for ore has certain resilience, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices, but the supply is increasing, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. It is predicted to continue the high - level oscillatory consolidation, and the performance of finished products should be watched [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - Automobile industry: The Passenger Car Association slightly raised the industry's annual forecast. Passenger car retail sales are expected to reach 24.35 million units in 2025, a 6% increase year - on - year, and the forecast volume is 300,000 units more than the June forecast. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased by 10.8% and 33.3% respectively [6]. - Global manufacturing: In July, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, showing weak operation. The Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, remaining above 50% for three consecutive months and continuing to support global economic recovery [7]. - Steel industry: In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% decrease from the previous period; 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 185,600 tons, a 4.5% decrease; and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 209,100 tons, a 0.5% increase [8]. Spot Market - Steel products: The national average prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) were 3,404 yuan/ton and 3,496 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of Tangshan billet (Q235) and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) were 3,090 yuan/ton and 2,140 yuan/ton respectively. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130 yuan/ton, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,200 yuan/ton [9]. - Iron ore: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 776 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 752 yuan/ton. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 9.65 yuan/ton and 23.64 yuan/ton respectively. The SGX swap (current month) was 101.91, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 101.65 [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,234 | 0.75 | 1,202,766 | - 377,887 | 1,652,569 | - 56,263 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,451 | 0.41 | 561,631 | - 173,827 | 1,460,175 | - 1,559 | | Iron ore | 794.5 | - 0.06 | 208,804 | 10,737 | 358,293 | - 26,208 | [13] Relevant Charts - Steel inventory: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 - 2025 [16][18][22]. - Iron ore inventory: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including seasonal inventory and inventory changes [21][25][27]. - Steel mill production: Charts present the blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills [30][32][33]. 后市研判 (Translated as Future Outlook) - Rebar: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production is weakly stable, with weekly output decreasing slightly by 0.90 tons. Demand has also declined, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 13.17 tons. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and inventory changes should be monitored [38]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply has increased with the resumption of production after maintenance, and there is room for further growth. Demand has certain resilience, but there are concerns about external demand. The price is expected to continue to rise with fluctuations, and overseas risks should be noted [39]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, with a decline in terminal consumption. However, the profitability of steel mills is good, so the demand has certain resilience. The supply is increasing steadily. The price is expected to continue high - level oscillatory consolidation, and the performance of finished products should be watched [40].
市场情绪偏暖，钢矿震荡企稳
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-06 10:15