供应预期好转，煤焦强势运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 6, the coke futures market showed a strong performance. The main contract closed at 1,644.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.95%. The market was affected by the news of anti - involution in the coal industry. Although the coke supply stabilized and demand decreased slightly this week, the improvement in the profitability of downstream steel mills and the resilience of hot metal production supported the market. Overall, the coke fundamentals changed little, and the futures are expected to continue to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the supply dynamics of coking coal [5][34]. - On August 6, the coking coal futures market also performed strongly. The main contract closed at 1,221 points, with an intraday increase of 6.45%. The market was affected by the continuous disturbances of over - production inspections in Shanxi. This week, the supply - demand situation of coking coal remained unchanged, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The medium - and long - term supply contraction expectation dominated the market. It is expected that the coking coal futures will maintain a strong operation in the near future, and attention should be paid to the subsequent supply - side dynamics [6][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% decrease compared to the previous period; 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.856 million tons, a 4.5% decrease; and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons, a 0.5% increase [8]. - On August 6, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1,500 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [9]. Spot Market - Coke: The latest quoted price of the flat - price index of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, a 3.52% week - on - week increase; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,400 yuan/ton, a 1.41% week - on - week decrease [5][10][34]. - Coking Coal: The latest quoted price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,150 yuan/ton, a 0.86% week - on - week decrease, with the futures warehouse receipt cost approximately 1,126 yuan/ton. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port decreased by 4.58% week - on - week to 1,460 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi - produced coking coal remained unchanged at 1,650 yuan/ton [6][10][35]. Futures Market - Coke: The main contract closed at 1,644.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.95%. The trading volume was 28,565 lots, a decrease of 3,994 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 23,184 lots, a decrease of 2,491 lots compared to the previous day [14]. - Coking Coal: The main contract closed at 1,221 points, with an intraday increase of 6.45%. The trading volume was 2,622,048 lots, an increase of 127,202 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 603,612 lots, an increase of 77,321 lots compared to the previous day [14]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory, coking coal inventory, domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and bar procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation, which reflect the historical data changes of relevant indicators from 2019 - 2025 [15][21][27]. Market Outlook - Coke: The market is affected by the news of anti - involution in the coal industry. Although the supply - demand fundamentals have certain pressure, the market sentiment has improved, and it is expected to continue to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the supply dynamics of coking coal [5][34]. - Coking Coal: Affected by over - production inspections in Shanxi, the market atmosphere has warmed up. With the medium - and long - term supply contraction expectation, it is expected to maintain a strong operation in the near future. Attention should be paid to the subsequent supply - side dynamics [6][35].