冠通每日交易策略-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper: The copper market is currently facing weak downstream demand, which is putting pressure on copper prices. However, low inventory levels and expectations of a Fed rate cut are providing some support, leading to a situation where copper prices are expected to oscillate under pressure [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Although there are expectations of supply contraction, the actual production has not been affected yet. The market sentiment is cooling down, and the supply - demand situation remains loose, so the market is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - Crude Oil: With the seasonal travel peak and the complex situation of inventory changes, OPEC+ production adjustment, geopolitical factors, and economic concerns, crude oil prices are expected to oscillate [10]. - Asphalt: The supply and demand situation is complex, with cost support weakening and policy having limited impact on the near - term. Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate in the near future [11][12]. - PP: The supply is increasing, the demand recovery is slow, and there is no actual policy implementation yet. PP prices are expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - Plastic: The开工 rate is at a neutral level, demand recovery is slow, and there is no actual policy implementation. Plastic prices are expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - PVC: With weak demand, high inventory, and new production capacity, PVC prices are expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - Coking Coal: Supply may be reduced due to inspections, but downstream resistance to price increases exists. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [17]. - Urea: With expected production reduction and increasing demand, the downside space of the market is limited despite the recent price correction [18]. Summary by Catalog Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 6, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Coking coal rose over 6%, silicon ferroalloy rose over 4%, and industrial silicon and polysilicon rose over 3%. SC crude oil and caustic soda fell nearly 1%. Among stock index futures, IM rose 1.34%, IC rose 1.09%, IF rose 0.37%, and IH rose 0.19%. Among bond futures, TS and TF rose 0.02%, T remained flat, and TL fell 0.04% [4]. - As of 15:22 on August 6, in terms of capital flow, IM 2509, coking coal 2601, and IC 2509 had capital inflows of 2.573 billion, 1.655 billion, and 1.173 billion respectively. Palm oil 2509, Shanghai gold 2510, and IF 2509 had capital outflows of 869 million, 683 million, and 536 million respectively [4]. Specific Commodity Analysis - Copper: The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI declined. Domestically, copper production increased in July, TC/RC fees are negative but rising, and there are factory maintenance plans in the third quarter. Demand is weak in the off - season, and potential tariff on semi - finished products may affect exports. Low inventory supports prices, but weak demand pressures prices [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price declined slightly. Supply may be reduced as there are many reports of maintenance and production suspension, but there is a risk of news falsification. Cost support is weakening, and demand is expected to increase. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - Crude Oil: Entering the seasonal travel peak, US crude oil inventory is low, but there is a significant unexpected increase in inventory according to the EIA report. OPEC+ will increase production in September, and geopolitical factors may affect supply. The market is worried about economic slowdown in the US, and prices are expected to oscillate [10]. - Asphalt: The supply is increasing, but the production in August is expected to decrease compared to July. Downstream demand is restricted by funds and weather. Inventory is at a low level, cost support is weakening, and prices are expected to oscillate [11][12]. - PP: The downstream开工 rate is low, and the upstream propane import is restricted. New production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and the inventory pressure is high. With no actual policy implementation, prices are expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - Plastic: The开工 rate is at a neutral level, and the downstream开工 rate is low. New production capacity is put into operation, and the inventory pressure is high. With no actual policy implementation, prices are expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - PVC: The supply开工 rate is high, and the demand is weak. New production capacity has been tested, and the inventory pressure is high. Prices are expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - Coking Coal: The price rose significantly. The Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, and domestic coal mines may reduce production due to inspections. Inventory is being transferred downstream, and the downstream demand may be affected by the decline in iron - water production. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [17]. - Urea: The price showed a mixed trend. Production is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is increasing. The market's downside space is limited [18].