8月市场观点：把握景气趋势，博弈低位补涨-20250806

Group 1 - The report highlights that since the 1990s, China has experienced seven notable rounds of price increases, with the current phase expected to follow a supply-side logic leading to a lag in stock market performance compared to PPI [1][16][19] - It emphasizes that demand determines potential returns while supply influences certainty, indicating that the current supply-side "anti-involution" is clear, and further guidance from the demand side is awaited [1][17][19] - The report suggests that if demand-side policies are implemented, sectors with relatively high certainty and elasticity, such as cement, glass, pharmaceuticals, and electrical machinery, are likely to benefit [1][19] Group 2 - The monthly market review indicates that despite various external factors, market sentiment has improved, with major indices reaching new highs, particularly in the steel, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials sectors [2][23] - The report notes that the core contradiction in the market remains internal, with expectations for profit improvement driving the market, while external factors are expected to have a muted impact [3][23] - It recommends focusing on sectors with strong growth signals and those in an upward trend, such as military, pharmaceuticals, communication equipment, and insurance, while also considering potential rebound opportunities in semiconductor and robotics sectors [4][19] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the current capacity utilization rates across various industries, indicating that sectors like non-metallic mineral products, pharmaceuticals, and electrical machinery are under significant pressure due to overcapacity [20][22] - It highlights that the capacity utilization rates for key industrial products are at historically low levels, suggesting potential for recovery if demand-side policies are enacted [20][22] - The report also tracks the performance of different sectors, noting that steel, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials have led the market, while banking and public utilities have seen declines [2][23]