政策预期持续发酵，焦煤大涨可否持续？

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide an industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The price of coking coal futures has risen significantly, and the report attempts to evaluate the sustainability of this increase by analyzing policy and market factors. While the long - term trend of coking coal valuation is upward, short - term sharp rises carry increasing risks of price correction [2][13][16] Summary by Directory Policy Specific Execution and Changes on the Basis of Supply Assurance - The National Energy Administration's notice on coal production verification is the focus of the current market. The verification covers 8 provinces (autonomous regions), requiring annual and monthly coal production not to exceed the announced capacity, and over - producing mines to be shut down for rectification. However, issues such as the definition of announced capacity and how to handle the coal mines with increased capacity after 2022 remain unclear [3][4] - Although the overall over - production situation in the first half of the year was rare, it may be difficult for some small and open - pit mines to strictly control monthly production within the limit. Currently, only a few mines are affected by this policy, but state - owned mines are expected to reduce production in some over - producing mines. The policy has a significant supply - limiting effect on state - owned mines [5] - The price of thermal coal has deviated from the lower limit of the reasonable range. Considering the supply - assurance pressure during the heating season, the impact of the policy on coal production may not be obvious until 2026, and its implementation needs further observation [7] Slow Supply Recovery and Manageable Coking Coal Stockpiling Pressure - Due to provincial self - inspections and production disruptions caused by heavy rain, domestic coking coal production has grown slowly since July. Imported coal is also affected by weather and equipment factors, making it difficult for the overall coking coal supply to recover significantly in the short term [9] - The rapid rise in coking coal and coke futures prices has stimulated arbitrage purchases by traders and inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises. Although the implicit inventory has increased, the total explicit inventory of carbon elements has declined. High steel mill profits have also supported the rapid increase in coke prices [11] Medium - to - Long - Term Inflection Point Established, but Risks of Price Decline are Rapidly Accumulating - The long - term trend of coking coal valuation has bottomed out and turned upward. However, in the short term, as production in some areas is expected to resume, downstream inventory replenishment space is limited, and the demand for carbon elements in the industry chain is approaching its peak, there is a possibility of over - consuming the winter storage market in the fourth quarter [13] - On the futures market, the large and rapid increase in positions in the coking coal 2601 contract has led to prominent capital contradictions and increased exchange attention. The spot price increase is showing signs of weakness, so the risk of a price decline in coking coal futures is rapidly increasing [16]