国投期货能源日报-20250806

Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - International oil prices fell overnight, with the SC contract down 0.63%. OPEC+’s September production increase decision and poor US economic data pressured the market. There are risks of oil price increases due to Russian oil sanctions, and attention should be paid to the EIA inventory performance tonight [2] - Crude oil futures continued to fall, while fuel oil futures rose inversely. The low-sulfur fuel oil market is under short-term pressure, and the high-low sulfur fuel oil price difference has the power to shrink [2] - The asphalt supply increase space is currently neutral, demand has the expectation of repair, and the low inventory still supports the price [3] - The LPG market maintains a weak oscillation. The supply is relatively loose, and domestic demand has bottom support [4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to decline, with the SC contract down 0.63%. OPEC+’s September production increase decision and poor US economic data pressured the market [2] - Trump plans to significantly increase import tariffs on India in the next 24 hours to sanction its purchase of Russian oil. The issue of the extension of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US has not been finalized. Attention should be paid to the risk of oil price increases caused by Russian oil sanctions [2] - Last week, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels more than expected. Attention should be paid to the EIA inventory performance tonight [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil futures continued to fall, while fuel oil futures rose inversely. The increase of FU was stronger than that of LU [2] - In July, the arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly month-on-month. After the peak season of ship bunkering demand, there was a lack of phased support from export rush. Since June, the ship bunkering volume in Fujairah has weakened month-on-month [2] - The high-level decline trend of the Singapore diesel crack spread continued. The low-sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are weak, and with the recent weakening of costs, the short-term pressure pattern of LU is difficult to change [2] - As the deadline set by the US for Russia to reach an agreement approaches, high-sulfur resources are relatively supported, and the high-low sulfur fuel oil price difference has the power to shrink [2] Asphalt - Today, the main contract of asphalt switched to the 10 contract. The SC closed down, while the BU rose slightly in the opposite direction [3] - The production plan in August decreased month-on-month compared to July, but Sinopec's refineries have exceeded the production plan for two consecutive months, and the maintenance of Lanqiao Petrochemical has been postponed again [3] - The shipment volume of sample refineries increased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase remained stable. The de-stocking of factory warehouses slowed down, and social warehouses slightly increased inventory. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly month-on-month but was still at a relatively low level in recent years [3] - The asphalt supply increase space is currently neutral, and follow-up attention should be paid to the actual production release of major refiners. The demand has the expectation of repair, and the low inventory still supports the price [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The Middle East CP was significantly lowered, but the spot discount has shrunk. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of export surplus pressure under OPEC's production increase [4] - The chemical profit margin has stabilized due to the decline of the finished product end. The PDH operating rate will continue to rise, and domestic demand has bottom support [4] - In July, the arrival volume increased overall, the supply was relatively loose, and refinery gas may continue to follow the decline of import costs [4] - The LPG market maintains a weak oscillation. The current basis has risen to a relatively high level [4]