国投期货有色金属日报-20250806

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (indicating a slight bullish/bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: No specific rating provided - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, production disruptions, policy expectations, and market sentiment. Each metal has its own trading strategies based on its specific situation [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated below the MA60 moving average and closed positive. The current copper price was 78,350 yuan, with a premium of 100 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed to 660 yuan. The market was evaluating the impact of the Codelco underground mine accident on the annual production target, with a risk of increased supply loss rate in the second half of the year. LME copper might oscillate down to $9,500, and short positions were recommended to be held [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, with a spot discount of 40 yuan in East China. Aluminum ingots had been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, and the apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. However, the output of aluminum rods increased month - on - month, and the inventory peak might appear in August. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate in the short term, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price was raised by 100 yuan to 19,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry was poor. In the medium term, it had certain toughness relative to the aluminum price. Alumina was under pressure and oscillating, with limited downward space [2] Zinc - The rebound trend of "anti - involution" black varieties was difficult to disprove. Shanghai zinc short - sellers reduced positions on dips, and the price rebounded. The downstream had stocked up at low prices before and was less willing to buy at high prices, resulting in a light spot trading volume. The fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand still dominated the medium - term short - selling strategy. However, due to positive expectations of domestic fiscal policies and Fed rate cuts during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, Shanghai zinc had a high probability of a phased rebound. Traders were advised to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The speculation on the "anti - involution" theme cooled down rapidly, and nickel, with relatively poor fundamentals, returned to its fundamentals more quickly. The inventory of ferronickel was basically stable at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons. Traders were advised to pay attention to the end of the destocking process [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated during the session, and it was expected to be in an oscillating market. Overseas tin prices were supported by low visible inventory and a decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, attention was paid to the change in high social inventory due to the game between the major factory maintenance plan and weak consumption. Traders were advised to close high - level short positions and wait and see [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated weakly, and the market trading volume shrank. After the price fluctuated repeatedly, the futures - spot lock was unlocked, and a large amount of goods entered the market. The total market inventory decreased slightly to 142,000 tons, and the smelter production decreased by 8% week - on - week. The price was expected to oscillate around 70,000 yuan [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed strongly. Xinjiang abolished the notice on the compliance capacity certification of industrial silicon, but it was clear that window guidance would still be implemented later. The spot price remained stable. In August, both supply and demand increased. The futures were expected to oscillate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon continued to rise, partly driven by the strength of coking coal. The SMM average price of polysilicon re - feed was 47,000 yuan/ton. The price was expected to oscillate in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and traders were advised to pay attention to the sentiment transmission of coking coal and strengthen position risk control [10]