南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current market is dominated by the issue of mining licenses, but both the lithium salt and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the process of destocking is slow. The pattern of medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two main market logics. One is that the disturbance of macro - sentiment and supply - side mining license issues drives the futures price to rebound, creating profit windows for lithium salt enterprises, increasing production enthusiasm, and potentially leading to a temporary shortage of lithium ore and pushing up the price of lithium salt. After the disturbance fades, the market will return to the fundamentals of demand - based pricing. The other is that in the downward price cycle, the over - capacity of lithium salt is causing pressure to clear up, which is transmitted upstream to the mining end, forming a negative feedback loop. Also, cost reduction due to technological upgrades is driving the price of lithium carbonate down [3]. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages. In the third quarter, the futures price is expected to rise due to improved macro - sentiment, mining license disturbances, and the off - season not being weak. In the fourth quarter, with the completion of technological upgrades and concentrated production release, the futures price is expected to decline [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Data - Price Interval Prediction: The short - term strong support level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 65,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 42.2% and a historical percentile of 73.5% (3 - year) [2]. - Daily Changes: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 69,620 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan (2.62%) from the previous day and down 980 yuan (-1.39%) week - on - week. The trading volume is 425,359 lots, down 11,848 lots (-2.71%) from the previous day and down 367,550 lots (-46.35%) week - on - week. The open interest is 257,770 lots, up 25,708 lots (11.08%) from the previous day and down 14,983 lots (-5.49%) week - on - week [8]. - Monthly Spread Changes: LC09 - 11 is - 360 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (125%) from the previous day and down 380 yuan (-1900%) week - on - week; LC11 - 12 is - 260 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (-28%) from the previous day and down 80 yuan (44%) week - on - week; LC11 - 01 is - 420 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (5%) from the previous day and down 340 yuan (425%) week - on - week [10]. 2. Spot Data - Lithium Ore Daily Average Quotes: The average prices of various lithium ores have declined. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,690 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-1.17%) from the previous day and down 85 yuan (-4.79%) week - on - week [15]. - Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Daily Prices: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,850 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan (-0.36%) from the previous day and down 2,000 yuan (-2.82%) week - on - week. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 70,950 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan (-0.35%) from the previous day and down 2,000 yuan (-2.74%) week - on - week [18]. - Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day and week [21]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Basis Quotes: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2507 contract are provided, with most showing no change in daily price [26]. - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: The total number of warehouse receipts is 15,023 lots, an increase of 580 lots from the previous day. Some warehouses have changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as an increase of 300 lots in Xiamen Guomao (COSCO Shipping Zhenjiang) and a decrease of 1,000 lots in Shengxin Lithium Energy (Suining) [29][30]. 4. Cost and Profit - Production Profit: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore for lithium carbonate production is presented, including that from purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) [32]. - Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import Profit: The theoretical delivery profit and import profit of lithium carbonate are also shown, with their trends over time [32].