国投期货软商品日报-20250806

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, similar to sugar, short - term balance and poor operability [1] - Timber: ★☆☆, with a bullish drive but limited market operability [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and poor operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, bullish drive but weak market operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - Overall, the report provides operation suggestions for various soft commodities, mainly including waiting and seeing for most products, and maintaining a long - biased idea for timber futures [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Today, Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, with stable basis of inland cotton spot and average trading; pure cotton yarn prices fell, and downstream buyers purchased as needed [2] - After continuous decline, cotton prices stabilized. Low cotton inventory supported prices, but weak downstream orders dragged them down [2] - In July, cotton inventory digestion slowed, downstream demand was weak, processing profit was under pressure, and warehouse receipt digestion was slow [2] - There is a strong expectation of production increase in Xinjiang in the new year, with increased planting area and ideal weather [2] - Operation: wait and see for now; for spreads, maintain a positive spread strategy for September - November [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the estimated sugarcane yield per hectare in the 25/26 season in the central - south is 72 tons, a 6.5% year - on - year decrease, but the sugar production is expected to exceed 40 million tons due to a high sugar - making ratio [3] - In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In July in Guangxi, 355,500 tons of sugar were sold, a year - on - year decrease of 217,800 tons; industrial inventory was 968,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 113,000 tons [3] - Domestic sugar remaining inventory is low, and inventory pressure is light. The decisive factor for the market is the national sugar production in the 25/26 season, and weather uncertainty exists [3] - Operation: wait and see [3] Apple - Apple prices fluctuated. As the production season nears the end, cold - storage remaining inventory is low, and traders are eager to sell, leading to weak prices [4] - The listing volume of early - maturing apples increased, with prices starting high and then falling. Due to high temperatures this year, the coloring of early - maturing apples is average, and the quantity of high - quality products is small [4] - As of August 1st, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 576,100 tons, a 46.2% year - on - year decrease; last week's de - stocking volume was 72,000 tons, a 26.9% year - on - year decline [4] - The market focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. The western production area was affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, increasing the risk of fruit rust, but the impact on production is small. There are still differences in production estimates [4] - Operation: wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated. The domestic natural rubber spot price rose steadily, synthetic rubber prices were stable, the port price of external butadiene was stable, and the raw material market price in Thailand generally increased [6] - Supply: global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period, with heavy rainfall in major Southeast Asian producing areas; last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased further, some plants planned to overhaul or restart, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate slightly declined [6] - Demand: last week, the domestic all - steel tire operating rate dropped significantly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate continued to decline slightly due to plant maintenance or load reduction. Terminal market demand was weak, and tire finished - product inventory decreased [6] - Inventory: this week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao dropped to 631,800 tons; last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 12,900 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory fell to 10,400 tons [6] - Strategy: wait and see [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures rose slightly. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,850 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price of Russian needles in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,180 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4,080 yuan/ton [7] - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.105 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period, a 1.8% month - on - month decline [7] - Currently, domestic import inventory is high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, downstream buyers tend to bargain, and it's the traditional off - season. The pulp fundamentals are still weak [7] - Prices may return to low - level fluctuations. Operation: wait and see [7] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable [8] - Supply: it's still the off - season for New Zealand timber shipments, and the domestic arrival volume of coniferous timber remains low. Although external prices have rebounded for two months, domestic spot prices are still weak, and traders face more pressure, so imports are unlikely to increase in the short term, and domestic supply may remain low [8] - Demand: after entering the off - season, the average daily port outbound volume is about 60,000 cubic meters, with good overall outbound conditions [8] - Inventory: as of August 1, the total national port timber inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, with relatively low inventory pressure [8] - Fundamentals have improved, spot prices are relatively low. As the peak season approaches, timber inventory will gradually decrease, and short - term spot prices will rebound, and futures prices are expected to continue rising. Operation: maintain a long - biased idea [8]