豆粕生猪：低基差刺激下游采购，豆粕远月放量成交

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term rebound momentum of US soybean futures is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Domestic DCE bean meal M09 may maintain a wide - range shock, and the far - month basis trading volume of bean meal has increased significantly. For live pigs, the short - term price is dominated by the slaughter rhythm, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [17][18][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - DCE bean meal main 2509 contract rose 0.10% to 3026 yuan/ton. Coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. DCE live pig main 2509 contract decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 13810 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs was 13.84 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg. Overnight CBOT US soybean main contract decreased by 0.40% to 991 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Main Producing Area Weather - The weather in the US Midwest planting belt is favorable this week. There will be rain, and the temperature will be lower than normal in the early part of the week and then rise later [4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, domestic bean meal inventory decreased by 0.36% to 1071000 tons, and contract volume increased by 44.53% to 6557000 tons. On August 6, the import cost of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans increased. On August 5, domestic mainstream oil mills' bean meal trading volume soared, with the basis trading volume increasing significantly. As of the week of August 1, CBOT soybean deliverable inventory decreased by 1.12% from the previous week. Brazil's 2025/26 and 2024/25 soybean sales ratios are lower than the same period last year. As of August 3, the EU's 2025/26 soybean and bean meal imports are lower than the same period last year. Pig prices are expected to be weak in the first ten - day of August and may rebound in the last ten - day. In the week of July 31, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate increased. In July, the global and Asian manufacturing PMIs decreased. In June, US exports and imports decreased [5][6][7]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts on bean meal, rapeseed meal, live pig prices, and their basis, as well as Chinese soybean and bean meal inventories [10][12][16]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategy - Bean meal: US soybean futures are under pressure from demand concerns, and the domestic DCE bean meal M09 may be range - bound. The far - month basis trading volume of bean meal has increased due to oil mills' promotion and market concerns about future soybean supply. Live pigs: Supply may first decrease and then increase, and demand recovery is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [17][18][19].