国泰海通证券每日报告精选-20250806

Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bull run in the second half of 2025, outperforming the A-share market, driven by sectors like innovative drugs, new consumption, and AI applications[4] - The overall increase in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to the scarcity of certain assets, aligning with current industry development trends and better fundamentals, which may attract continued capital inflow from mainland investors[5] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The AI sector is leading the technological cycle upward, with significant growth potential for Hong Kong's tech assets, particularly in the AI industry chain, which includes model development and commercial applications[5] - The film industry has shown significant improvement, with a 49% increase in box office revenue week-on-week, and a year-on-year growth of 64.8% due to new releases during the summer season[11] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Real estate sales in 30 major cities have decreased by 20.8% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a decline of 17.8%[10] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 5.0% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery in consumer demand despite rising inventory pressures among dealers[10] Group 4: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The U.S. and China have agreed to extend the tariff exemption period by 90 days, stabilizing trade relations temporarily[14] - Recent meetings have emphasized the need for macroeconomic policies to support economic recovery and stabilize the capital market, with a focus on promoting consumption and managing risks[16]