镍&不锈钢：短期震荡为主，关注镍铁支撑

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term trend of nickel and stainless steel is mainly volatile, and the support of ferronickel should be noted. The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel have no obvious logical changes, with the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price rising slightly and downstream product differentiation. Stainless steel is expected to have strong supply and weak demand in August, and the macro - level needs to pay attention to the trend of the US dollar index [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - Shanghai nickel price range forecast is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - Stainless steel price range forecast is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - Shanghai Nickel Risk Management Strategies: For inventory management, when product sales prices fall, short Shanghai nickel futures or sell call options; for procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts, sell put options, or buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. - Stainless Steel Risk Management Strategies: Similar to Shanghai nickel, for inventory management, short stainless steel futures or sell call options; for procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts, sell put options, or buy out - of - the - money call options [3]. Market Situation Analysis - Nickel Market: The Indonesian nickel ore price has stabilized with a slight increase, and the supply side of ferronickel has a strong willingness to hold prices. The new energy link has some support, and the demand of some downstream precursor factories has increased [4]. - Stainless Steel Market: It fluctuates repeatedly, with the expectation of strong supply and weak demand in August. The spot side is relatively firm, and some specifications still have upward trends, but overall trading is average [4]. Market Data - Nickel Disk Data: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,070 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 87,840 lots (up 3.56% month - on - month), and a position of 86,052 lots (down 4.96% month - on - month) [6]. - Stainless Steel Disk Data: The latest price of stainless steel main contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 82,019 lots (up 2.75% month - on - month), and a position of 84,046 lots (down 2.21% month - on - month) [7]. Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,486 tons (down 795 tons from the previous period), LME nickel inventory is 211,254 tons (up 2,172 tons from the previous period), stainless steel social inventory is 966.2 tons (down 1.2 tons from the previous period), and ferronickel inventory is 33,415 tons (up 182 tons from the previous period) [8]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Indonesia plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel ore quota license period, the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase stainless steel demand, and ferronickel trading is warming up [6]. - Negative Factors: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season, de - stocking is slow, pure nickel inventory is high, nickel ore seasonal inventory rises, and Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist [6].