棉花：美棉小幅上涨，郑棉小幅反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zhengmian's main 2509 contract rose 0.26%, closing at 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. US cotton rose slightly, with an overnight increase of 0.81%, closing at 67.16 cents/pound ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. - Internationally, the deterioration of the US employment market may delay the Fed's policy shift, and investors are betting on an early start of the Fed's cyclical interest rate cuts. Due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand and weak US cotton export demand, international cotton prices remain in a weak consolidation state. Domestically, although the destocking trend of cotton commercial inventory is good, it is still at a high level. With high - yield new cotton this year and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengmian is limited [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - Zhengmian's main 2509 contract rose 0.26%, closing at 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. US cotton rose slightly, with an overnight increase of 0.81%, closing at 67.16 cents/pound ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 6, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts was 8,812 (-99) sheets, including 8,464 (-99) registered warehouse receipts and 348 (+0) valid forecasts [3]. - In July 2025, the China Garment E - commerce Prosperity Index was 49.62, down 0.72 from the previous month. The sub - indexes such as production and e - commerce also declined. The garment e - commerce industry entered the off - season in July, and the prosperity index decreased [3][4]. - On August 6, the average arrival price of 3128 lint cotton nationwide was 15,122 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the price of 32s pure - cotton yarn ring - spun was 21,615 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton; the spinning profit was - 1,019.2 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton. Rising raw material cotton prices led to a decrease in the immediate spinning profit of textile enterprises [4]. - As of August 3, the budding rate of cotton in the US was 87%, 3 percentage points behind last year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average [4]. - As of the week ending August 2, Egypt's net cotton export contracts were 615 tons, a 56.4% increase from the previous week, all of which were Giza 94 cotton [4]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report provides data charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, spreads, textile profits, cotton and yarn import profits, warehouse receipt quantities, and non - commercial positions, with data sources from Wind and Jinshi Futures Research Institute [1][5][6][9][11][13]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - Internationally, the US unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the labor participation rate continued to decline. The "pseudo - unemployment" phenomenon may delay the Fed's policy shift. International cotton prices are in a weak consolidation state due to loose supply - demand and weak US cotton export demand. Domestically, the cotton commercial inventory is destocking well but remains high. With potential high - yield new cotton and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengmian is limited [14].