黑色金属日报-20250806

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The overall domestic demand in the steel industry remains weak, while exports stay at a relatively high level. The spot supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the "anti - involution" dominates the market trend. The market sentiment is cautious after sharp fluctuations [2]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with supply having seasonal recovery expectations in August and demand likely to keep iron - water production at a high level in the short term [3]. - Coke is expected to rise in the short term, with the fifth round of price increases implemented, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [4]. - Coking coal prices have a relatively small downside space in the short term, with the market sentiment heating up due to coal over - production inspection expectations, and the price is also affected by the "anti - involution" policy [6]. - Silicomanganese prices are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with the price bottom gradually rising, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high [7]. - Ferrosilicon follows the trend of silicomanganese, and its price is also greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The construction materials demand is weak in the off - season, with thread apparent demand declining and inventory accumulating at a low level. Hot - rolled coil demand has resilience, with production relatively high and inventory slightly accumulating. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the market negative feedback pressure is small. The downstream industries show weak domestic demand and high - level exports [2]. Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore decreased month - on - month, with a seasonal recovery expected in August. The domestic arrival volume increased month - on - month but was lower than last year. The port inventory stabilized, and there is no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory in the short term. The terminal demand is weak, and the iron - water production is expected to remain high in the short term [3]. Coke - The fifth round of coke price increases has been implemented, with production slightly decreasing and inventory continuing to decline. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production remains high. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and is expected to rise in the short term [4]. Coking Coal - The production of coking coal mines has slightly increased, and the total inventory has decreased month - on - month. The market sentiment is affected by coal over - production inspection expectations, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with a relatively small downside space in the short term [6]. Silicomanganese - The demand for silicomanganese is supported by high - level iron - water production. The weekly production has increased, but the rate is lower than expected. Manganese ore prices have slightly increased, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [7]. Ferrosilicon - The iron - water production of ferrosilicon has slightly decreased but remains above 240. The export demand is about 30,000 tons, and the secondary demand has slightly decreased. The supply has slightly increased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. It follows the trend of silicomanganese and is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [8].