Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report indicates that crude oil continues to be weak, and the energy and chemical sectors are undergoing an oscillatory repair. The fundamentals of various products are under different pressures, with most showing a bearish trend in the short - term, and their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost changes, while also being influenced by the trend of crude oil [1][2]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Logic: On August 3, the OPEC+ meeting decided to continue a significant production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September. U.S. refined oil apparent demand has been weakening in the past two weeks, and after consecutive inventory builds of crude oil and refined oil, the support from low inventory has weakened. There is also a tendency for "recession expectations" trading in the macro - environment [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, with the short - term pressure level shifting down to 516. The strategy is to look for opportunities to go short after a rebound [1][2]. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: The cost of pure benzene remains under pressure. High profits in benzene ethylene stimulate increased supply and new device production, leading to greater supply pressure. Demand remains weak, and the fundamentals will continue to be under pressure [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory without changing the downward path. The short - term pressure is at 7375, and the 15 - minute pressure is at 7325. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [6]. Rubber - Logic: Seasonally, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year's rubber supply is difficult to increase, and terminal tire inventories are much higher than historical levels, resulting in weaker demand expectations. High - inventory pressure drives the fundamentals downward [10]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term declining structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory without changing the downward path. The short - term pressure is at 15120, and the 15 - minute pressure is at 14600. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: High terminal tire inventories lead to weaker demand expectations. Supply - side device restarts and capacity releases maintain high production. Although the short - term inventory of butadiene is low, it will be bearish after more arrivals. The fundamentals are bearish [14]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory without changing the downward path. The short - term pressure is at 11550. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [14]. PX - Logic: The start - up of downstream terminals has increased during the off - peak to peak season transition, but overall changes in upstream and downstream start - ups are small. The short - term fundamentals have few contradictions and may follow the direction of crude oil [17]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. There was a rebound repair today, with the 15 - minute cycle turning bullish, but the hourly - level has not reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle (partially take profit and re - enter after the 15 - minute cycle breaks through) [17]. PTA - Logic: Upstream and downstream start - ups remain stable, and inventory is neutral. The short - term fundamentals have no contradictions and may follow the direction of crude oil [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. There was a rebound repair today, with the 15 - minute cycle turning bullish, but the hourly - level has not reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle (partially take profit and re - enter after the 15 - minute cycle breaks through) [19]. PP - Logic: During the demand off - season, downstream start - ups are weak. With new capacity launches and restart of maintenance devices, inventories at all levels are continuously building. The fundamentals are bearish, and attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil [22]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, and after a sharp short - term decline, the slope was repaired without changing the declining structure. The pressure level at 7195 is far away, and the 15 - minute cycle pressure at 7100 can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [22]. Methanol - Logic: Port inventories continue to build, domestic maintenance devices have restarted, and the start - up rate has increased, remaining at the highest level in history. Downstream demand is average for olefins and good for traditional downstream sectors, with few short - term contradictions [25]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term declining/oscillatory structure, and the short - term is in a declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, and the short - term pressure is at 2400. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [25]. PVC - Logic: Some devices have ended maintenance and start - ups have increased. Terminal demand remains weak due to the ongoing real - estate downturn and the off - season. After the exchange restricted positions and the Politburo meeting did not mention anti - involution, speculative funds withdrew, leading to a short - term downward correction [27]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term rising structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, and the downward path remained unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 5070. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: After consecutive declines, low port inventories provide short - term support, but terminal demand remains weak. The current situation is strong, but the expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the time when inventories start to build [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, and the short - term pressure is at 4425. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [29]. Plastic - Logic: Maintenance devices have restarted, start - ups have increased, and new capacity has been launched, resulting in large supply pressure. Downstream start - ups remain at a low level year - on - year and are weak. The supply - demand situation is bearish [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillatory structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, and the hourly - level structure is not clear. Attention should be paid to the opportunity for the 15 - minute cycle to turn into a declining structure. The 15 - minute support is at 4395. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle and pay attention to the opportunity for the 15 - minute cycle to break through and reverse [33].
天富期货原油板块观点汇总品种中期结构短期结构原油小时周期策略-20250806
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-08-06 13:28