宏观落地，空窗期内警惕价格高位回落风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged at its late - July meeting, but the probability of a September rate cut increased, with greater internal divergence. The non - farm payrolls data on Friday night was significantly below expectations, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a rise in precious metal prices. In China, relevant meetings have concluded, and subsequent policies are awaited [6]. - As macro events gradually land, there is likely to be a macro - policy window period, and the market is more likely to return to fundamental logic. Attention should be paid to hedging opportunities during the off - season [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina - Industry Fundamentals 3.1.1 Supply - In June 2025, China's alumina total capacity was 11,292 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.56% and a month - on - month increase of 50 million tons. The in - production capacity was 9,315 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.14% and a month - on - month increase of 365 million tons [11]. - In June 2025, China's alumina production was 774.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. The cumulative production this year was 4,515.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [14]. - In June 2025, China's alumina operating rate was 82.49, at a relatively high - middle position in history, returning to the same level as last year and a month - on - month increase of 2.88%. There is still significant upward space, indicating high supply elasticity [17]. - In June 2025, China's alumina net exports were 6.87 million tons, with a continuous net - export pattern for 15 months and a significant month - on - month decline. From January to June 2025, the cumulative net exports were 107.18 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase [21]. 3.1.2 Demand - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 380.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The cumulative production this year was 2,237.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [24]. 3.1.3 Cost - The Guinea bauxite price increased slightly week - on - week. The CIF average price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $73.5 per ton, a $0.5 increase from last week. The CIF average price of Australian bauxite was $69 per ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - The caustic soda price was 3,650 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week [30]. 3.1.4 Profit - The full production cost of alumina was 2,834.3 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.1 yuan per ton. The smelting profit was 426.5 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.1 yuan per ton [33]. - The alumina export profit was 99 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 24 yuan per ton [36]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of July 31, the port inventory of alumina was 2.5 million tons, a 1.2 - million - ton decrease from July 24 [39]. 3.1.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Since January 2025, the domestic alumina supply has returned to an oversupply pattern. Considering new production capacity, it is expected to remain oversupplied in the long run. In June, it returned to an oversupply pattern [42]. 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum total capacity was 4,520.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.58% and a month - on - month increase of 0.5 million tons. The in - production capacity was 4,415.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% and a month - on - month increase of 2 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.38, a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 380.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The cumulative production this year was 2,237.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [48]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.68, a year - on - year increase of 1.16% and a month - on - month increase of 0.03%. It is at a relatively high position in history, with limited upward space and low supply elasticity [51]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum net imports were 17.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.86 million tons and a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 million tons. From January to June 2025, the cumulative net imports were 116.35 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77 million tons [56]. - On August 1, 2025, the average price of scrap aluminum was 19,955 yuan per ton, a 245 - yuan decrease compared to July 24. The refined - scrap spread was 1,635 yuan per ton, a 75 - yuan increase compared to July 24 [58]. - In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 15.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons. From January to June 2025, the cumulative scrap aluminum imports were 101.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.88% [61]. 3.2.2 Demand - In June 2025, China's aluminum product production was 587.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% and a month - on - month increase of 11.17 million tons. The cumulative production this year was 3,276.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [64]. - In June 2025, China's aluminum alloy production was 166.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% and a month - on - month increase of 2.4 million tons. The cumulative production this year was 909.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [67]. 3.2.3 Cost - The domestic alumina spot price stabilized with a slight rebound, and the overseas spot price increased slightly in the short term [70]. - The pre - baked anode price was 5,482.5 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week [73]. - The latest price of dry - process aluminum fluoride was 9,670 yuan per ton, and the latest price of cryolite was 8,520 yuan per ton, both unchanged week - on - week [76]. 3.2.4 Profit - The recent electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was 16,882 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan per ton. The overall profit was 3,728 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 318 yuan per ton [79]. - Currently, the electrolytic aluminum import loss was 1,377 yuan per ton, a significant week - on - week narrowing of 228 yuan per ton [82]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of July 31, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major consumption areas was 54.5 million tons, a 3.3 - million - ton week - on - week increase and a 1 - million - ton increase during the week [85]. - In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum spot inventory was 54.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.8 million tons and a month - on - month increase of 7.5 million tons. The absolute value is at a relatively low position in history, returning to the same level as in 2023 [88]. - As of July 31, the domestic aluminum rod inventory was 13.99 million tons, a 0.21 - million - ton week - on - week increase and a 0.14 - million - ton decrease during the week. The inventory is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, with little weekly change [91]. 3.2.6 Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China was between 20,490 - 20,690 yuan per ton, a 310 - yuan week - on - week decrease. The spot price against the 08 contract showed a high - level decline in both the spot and futures markets, with the spot turning to a discount and the discount widening. Due to the deepening off - season, the downstream's acceptance of high prices continued to decline, and overall trading was average [94].