沪锌:商品情绪显著缓和，基本面压力逐步积累

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US non - farm payroll data for July 2025 released on the evening of August 1st was significantly weaker than expected. The seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment population in July was 73,000, the smallest increase since October last year, far lower than the market expectation of 110,000. The total number of new jobs in May and June was 258,000 less than previously reported, and the unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, which met market expectations but made Trump urge Powell to cut interest rates [5]. - Last week, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market significantly eased, and zinc prices gradually declined. The weekly processing fee continued to rise, and the supply of zinc ore was becoming looser, which was being transmitted to the smelting end. The pressure on the zinc fundamentals was gradually accumulating [5]. - In the long - term, the supply of zinc ore is shifting to a looser state cyclically. Several large zinc ore projects at home and abroad have production increase plans in 2025. The increase in global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the spot TC of zinc ore. The increase in ore supply is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased, and the output of refined zinc has continued to expand. It is expected that the production increase situation in the ore and smelting sectors will continue [5]. - On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there are concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach a new trade agreement and the global economic growth rate remains resilient, there is no expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, and it will mainly remain at the existing level. Whether the demand is estimated optimistically or pessimistically, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, which will bring downward pressure on the long - term zinc price [5]. - In the short and medium term, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market has significantly declined, the anti - involution trading has ended, and the market has returned to the fundamental reality. The long - term surplus trend of zinc remains unchanged, and short positions can still be established on rallies [5]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Report 1. Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - Zinc Concentrate Production: In May 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and it was halved compared to the previous year. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was overestimated, and the trend of looser zinc ore supply on the margin remained unchanged [6]. - Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees: From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of zinc concentrate in China was 2.5353 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.14%. The increase in imports boosted the processing fee. As of August 1st, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $78.8/ton, and the processing fee for domestic ore was reported at 3,900 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees have been raised several times recently [9]. - Smelter Profit Estimation: With the continuous increase in processing fees, the profits of smelters have been continuously improved [12]. - Refined Zinc Production: In May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.18%. In July 2025, the domestic refined zinc production was 601,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. As profits rebounded, production was gradually increasing [16]. - Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume: From January to June 2025, China's cumulative net import of refined zinc was 180,000 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [18]. 2. Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc: In June 2025, the domestic galvanized sheet production was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.31%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of the implicit inventory in the industrial chain [23]. - Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Infrastructure and Real Estate: From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but the front - end indicators such as new construction and construction were still weak [25]. - Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Automobiles and Home Appliances: In June 2025, the domestic automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43%. In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [28]. 3. Other Indicators - Inventory: During the off - season, the social inventory of zinc continued to accumulate. With the continuous increase in the output of domestic smelters, the inventory accumulation trend will continue [30]. - Spot Premium and Discount: As of August 1st, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $10.96/ton. With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium declined [33]. - Exchange Positions: As of July 25th, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 30,194 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently declined [35].