2025年7月服务业PMI点评：两个服务业景气指标为何大幅背离？

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [36]. Core Insights - In July, the S&P Global Services PMI for China rose to 52.6, an increase of 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, while the China Caixin Services Business Activity Index fell to 50.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [3]. - The divergence between the two service PMIs in July represents the largest gap in nearly two and a half years, highlighting different underlying trends in the service sector [3][4]. - The Caixin Services PMI is more reflective of the retail and real estate sectors, while the S&P PMI captures the impact of international tourism on China's service industry [5][8]. Summary by Sections Section 1: PMI Analysis - The Caixin Services PMI covers a broader sample of over a thousand companies across approximately 40 industry categories, while the S&P Services PMI includes only 650 companies and focuses on a narrower range of industries [4][5]. - Historical data shows that divergences between the two PMIs often occur when the retail and real estate sectors are underperforming, while tourism is thriving [5][22]. Section 2: Sector Performance - The Caixin Services PMI is better at tracking the retail sector's performance, as it aligns more closely with the growth rate of social retail sales [23][26]. - The S&P Services PMI's high readings are largely driven by the recovery in tourism, with a strong correlation to air passenger traffic [8][31]. Section 3: Economic Indicators - The report suggests that the decline in the Caixin Services PMI may signal a cooling in the real estate market, while the S&P PMI reflects a robust tourism sector [6][8]. - The analysis indicates that the Caixin Services PMI is more sensitive to changes in the real estate market, as evidenced by its stronger correlation with housing price indices [6][27].