Changjiang Securities·2025-08-06 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [11]. Core Insights - Revenue performance in Q1 2025 shows divergence among brands, with On (+40%) and Adidas (+13%) performing well, while Nike (-7%) and Under Armour (-11%) face revenue declines due to weak demand and inventory adjustments [6][20]. - The cautious revenue guidance from key companies indicates a continuation of this divergent performance in upcoming quarters, with some brands canceling their full-year guidance [7][25]. - The industry is entering a replenishment phase, but weak end-consumer demand necessitates close monitoring of recovery trends [9][34]. Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, On and Adidas exhibited strong revenue growth, while Nike and UA struggled with declines [6][18]. - The overall revenue growth rates varied significantly across regions, with North America and Greater China showing relative weakness [20][22]. Inventory Dynamics - The apparel industry has returned to a healthy inventory level but is now entering a replenishment phase, with some brands beginning to accumulate stock [8][9]. - Retailers' inventory-to-sales ratios are normal, but certain brands are still in a destocking phase, particularly Nike and VF [8][9]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the pace of consumer demand recovery, especially as the industry faces challenges from weak demand and inflationary pressures [9][34]. - Nike's gradual operational improvement may alleviate some negative pressures on the industry, suggesting potential for a rebound in the manufacturing sector [9][34].