Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to have limited upside due to weakening US economic data and a tense raw material supply situation, with the Shanghai copper main contract expected to trade between 77,800 - 78,800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9,550 - 9,760 US dollars/ton [1] - Aluminum prices have rebounded significantly, but considering the off - season and export pressure, the upside space is limited. The Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to trade between 20,600 - 20,900 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2,580 - 2,640 US dollars/ton [3] - Lead prices are expected to have limited upside as supply remains loose and domestic inventories are rising slowly [4] - Zinc prices are at a higher risk of decline as domestic industry data is weak and previous supporting factors have weakened [5] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the expectation of increased supply from Myanmar and weak demand [6] - Nickel prices are expected to have correction pressure despite a short - term rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see [7] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be supported at the bottom, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed, and the 2509 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to trade between 67,200 - 70,800 yuan/ton [9][10] - Alumina is recommended to short at high levels as the over - capacity situation is difficult to change, and the domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton [12] - Stainless steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [14] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to have limited upside as the off - season leads to weak supply and demand [17] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market performance: LME copper rose 0.41% to 9,674 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 78,360 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 2,275 tons to 156,125 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 20,000 tons [1] - Price analysis: The weak US non - farm data increased the expectation of Fed rate cuts, but the sentiment may not be optimistic after the tariff implementation. The raw material supply is tense, but the copper supply outside the US is expected to increase [1] Aluminum - Market performance: LME aluminum rose 2.2% to 2,621 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,770 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.2 to 468,000 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 43,000 tons [3] - Price analysis: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is low, which supports the price, but the off - season and export pressure limit the upside [3] Lead - Market performance: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.48% to 16,853 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 17.5 to 1,986.5 US dollars/ton [4] - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventory was 58,700 tons, and LME lead inventory was 273,000 tons [4] - Price analysis: The supply of lead ore is tight, but the overall supply of lead ingots is loose, and the domestic inventory is slowly rising [4] Zinc - Market performance: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.05% to 22,370 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 2 to 2,770.5 US dollars/ton [5] - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory was 14,400 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 92,300 tons [5] - Price analysis: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, production is rising, downstream consumption is weakening, and the risk of price decline is increasing [5] Tin - Market performance: On August 6, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 266,940 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [6] - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange tin registered warehouse receipts increased by 75 tons to 7,358 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 125 tons to 1,755 tons [6] - Price analysis: The expectation of increased supply from Myanmar is strengthening, and short - term supply and demand are weak. The domestic tin price is expected to trade between 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price between 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [6] Nickel - Market performance: Nickel prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday [7] - Inventory: No significant inventory data provided - Price analysis: The short - term macro environment is positive, but the downstream demand improvement is limited, and the price has correction pressure [7] Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The MMLC spot index was flat, and the LC2509 contract rose 2.62% [9] - Inventory: No significant inventory data provided - Price analysis: The expectation of supply reduction supports the price, but the sustainability needs to be observed, and the 2509 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to trade between 67,200 - 70,800 yuan/ton [9][10] Alumina - Market performance: On August 6, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.62% to 3,246 yuan/ton [12] - Inventory: The Wednesday futures warehouse receipts were 13,200 tons, remaining unchanged at a historical low [12] - Price analysis: The over - capacity situation is difficult to change, and it is recommended to short at high levels. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton [12] Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,935 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [14] - Inventory: The social inventory was 1.1112 million tons, a decrease of 0.66% [14] - Price analysis: The supply of 316L is tight, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [14] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market performance: The AD2511 contract rose 0.35% to 20,075 yuan/ton [17] - Inventory: The inventory in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi decreased slightly [17] - Price analysis: The off - season leads to weak supply and demand, and the price upside is limited [17]
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250807
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-07 00:44