万联晨会-20250807

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.66%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,733.774 billion yuan. The leading sectors included defense and military, machinery equipment, and coal, while the lagging sectors were pharmaceuticals, retail, and building materials [2][7]. - In the concept sectors, PEEK materials, China Shipbuilding System, and military equipment restructuring concepts had the highest gains, while assisted reproduction, cell immunotherapy, and hepatitis concepts saw the largest declines. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.03%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 0.2%. Internationally, all three major US indices also rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.18%, the S&P 500 up 0.73%, and the Nasdaq up 1.21% [2][7]. Important News - The Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the "New Round of Rural Road Improvement Action Plan," aiming to complete the reconstruction of 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027, establishing a convenient, efficient, and equitable rural road network, with a target of over 55% of administrative villages having access to public transport [3][8]. - President Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on goods from India, raising the total tariff rate faced by India to 50%. This new tariff will take effect in 21 days, following the first round of 25% tariffs that will take effect on Thursday. Trump also announced a nearly 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors, with no tariffs for companies that build factories in the US [3][8]. Research Highlights - The report tracks the dynamics of the US's reciprocal tariff policy, noting that the third round of trade negotiations between China and the US took place from July 28 to 29, resulting in an extension of the current tariff truce agreement. The previously suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs and countermeasures have been extended for 90 days until November 11, 2025, maintaining an actual execution tax rate of 10% [9]. - On July 31, President Trump signed a new executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on imports from 69 trading partners. Countries not listed will face a uniform 10% tariff, and goods rerouted through third countries to evade tariffs will incur a 40% transshipment tax [9]. - As of August 4, several countries and regions have reached tariff agreements with the US, with Vietnam's tariff rate set at 20%, and rates for the Philippines, Thailand, and Cambodia at 19%. Japan, South Korea, and the EU have rates of 15%, while the UK has a rate of 10%. Overall, these rates are lower than the estimated levels during the April tariff conflict, and further observation is needed regarding the final tariff agreements and exemptions for other economies [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the hard technology sector that have advantages in overseas layout, strong independent research and development capabilities, and high product added value. It also recommends actively seizing opportunities for domestic substitution in core areas such as semiconductors, operating systems, and high-end materials [12].