五矿期货农产品早报-20250807

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward fluctuation due to a single supply source. The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors [3]. - The fundamentals support the central price of oils and fats, but the upside space is restricted by multiple factors, so it should be viewed as oscillatory [9]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline in the future [13]. - The cotton market is short - term bearish [16]. - The egg market has a supply - demand imbalance, with different trading strategies for the short - term and medium - term [19]. - The pig market's supply - demand logic has been re - structured, and more attention should be paid to the opportunities in the spread between contracts [22]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - Market Situation: Wednesday night, US soybeans fell slightly. Sino - US trade talks have not provided benefits for US soybean exports, and the good early weather in North America has also put pressure on prices. However, due to low valuation, it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose slightly by about 10 yuan on Wednesday. The成交 and提货 of soybean meal were good, and the downstream inventory days continued to decline slightly [3]. - Weather: In the next two weeks, rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be slightly less, mainly in the central region, and the temperature is at a neutral level [3]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest buying on dips at the low end of the soybean meal cost range, and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the high end. For arbitrage, focus on widening the spread of the 09 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5]. Oils - Important Information: Malaysia's palm oil export volume showed different trends in June, and its production increased in July. Wet weather has delayed the rapeseed harvest in the EU 27 and the UK, and the estimated output remains unchanged [7]. - Trading Strategy: The fundamentals support the central price of oils and fats, but considering various restrictive factors, it should be viewed as oscillatory [9]. Sugar - Key Information: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price was weakly oscillatory. The spot prices of sugar groups in different regions decreased. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi and Yunnan increased year - on - year, and the sales rates also increased [11][12]. - Trading Strategy: In the second half of the year, the increase in import supply will squeeze the sales space of domestic sugar. Assuming no significant rebound in the external market price, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - Key Information: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate. The US cotton's excellent - good rate remained the same as the previous week, and the budding and boll - setting rates increased [15]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the non - implementation of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement and weak downstream consumption, the short - term view is bearish [16]. Eggs - Spot Information: The national egg prices were stable or falling. The supply was sufficient, the trading was slow, and the egg prices are expected to be stable or slightly weak [18]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term strategy is to reduce short positions on dips to avoid risks, and the medium - term strategy is to short after a rebound [19]. Pigs - Spot Information: The domestic pig prices were half - stable and half - falling. The supply of pigs for slaughter increased, and the sales pressure on the breeding side was relatively large [21]. - Trading Strategy: The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction. Pay more attention to the opportunities in the spread between contracts [22].