金信期货日刊-20250807

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise of coking coal 2601 is due to multiple factors, and investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics, treating it with a bullish bias in a volatile market [3][4] - A-share margin trading balance has returned to 2 trillion, and in the short term, it is mainly in a high-level volatile upward trend [7][8] - The weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold, and currently, it is in a short - term sideways consolidation [11] - Iron ore has strong fundamental support and is in a co - upward trend. Maintain a low - buying strategy [15][16] - The supply - demand situation of glass has slightly improved, and when it pulls back to the short - term support level, consider a low - buying strategy after stabilization [19][20] - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. Maintain a low - buying strategy [22] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. The resumption of production in some coal mines in Shanxi Lvliang is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures [4] - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with a nearly 60% comprehensive profit rate for steel mills. The daily average pig iron output is at a high level, and the replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up prices [4] - Policy: The implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law", the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations have also driven up coking coal prices [4] - Outlook: If strict production over - inspection is carried out, the supply is expected to continue to shrink. If demand remains the same, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or pig iron output peaks and falls, the upward trend will be under pressure [4] Stock Index Futures - Market performance: A - share three major indexes opened lower and closed higher, with all closing with mid -阳线. The margin trading balance has returned to 2 trillion after ten years [7][8] - Operation suggestion: In the short term, it is mainly in a high - level volatile upward trend [7] Gold - Fundamental factors: The weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data indicate that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold [11] - Technical analysis: Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term sideways consolidation [11] Iron Ore - Fundamental support: Steel mills' profitability has improved, pig iron output remains high, and the overall fundamentals are strongly supportive. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black industrial chain is in a healthy state [15][16] - Technical analysis: There was a slight adjustment today, and maintain a low - buying strategy [15] Glass - Supply - demand situation: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and factory inventories have significantly declined, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [20] - Driving factors: The main driving factor is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery [19] - Operation suggestion: When it pulls back to the short - term support level, consider a low - buying strategy after stabilization [19] Alumina - Characteristics: As a "mineral with stories", it has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, and its futures have high long - term volatility [22] - Event: EGA condemned the Guinean government for revoking the GAC mining license [22] - Operation suggestion: Maintain a low - buying strategy [22]