国投期货农产品日报-20250807

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: Not clearly defined, but the symbol indicates a certain state [1] - 豆粕: Not clearly defined, but the symbol indicates a certain state [1] - 豆油: Not clearly defined, but the symbol indicates a certain state [1] - 棕榈油: Not mentioned in terms of rating symbol, but analysis is provided [4] - 菜粕: Not clearly defined, but the symbol indicates a certain state [1] - 菜油: Not clearly defined, but the symbol indicates a certain state [1] - 玉米: Not clearly defined, but the symbol indicates a certain state [1] - 生猪: One star, representing a bearish bias with limited trading operability [1] - 鸡蛋: Not clearly defined, but the symbol indicates a certain state [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of agricultural products is complex, with different factors affecting each variety. For example, weather, policy, supply - demand relationship, and trade tariffs all play important roles in the price trends of various agricultural products [2][3][4] - There is no clear - cut trend in most agricultural products at present, and most of them are in a state of shock, and trading opportunities need to be carefully judged [3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs [豆一] - This Friday, there will be a competitive sale of domestic soybeans, with a投放 quantity of 32,000 tons. Northeast soybean is in the pod - setting stage, and the weather is favorable for growth. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans continues to decline [2] - The decline of imported soybeans has slowed down, and they are in a low - level consolidation. Future attention should be paid to domestic soybean production area weather and policy guidance [2] [大豆&豆粕] - The excellent rate of US soybeans is at a high level in the same period of history. The weather in the next two weeks is normal, and US soybeans are oscillating weakly [3] - In China, Brazilian soybeans continue to arrive at ports, the oil mill crushing rate is stable, and the soybean meal inventory has reached the highest level this year. Before the tariff issue is clear, the soybean meal market is in a shock state [3] [豆油&棕榈油] - Domestic soybean oil continues to be strong today, stronger than palm oil. There are uncertainties in the long - term supply of soybean oil, and it is in the demand peak season in the fourth quarter [4] - The price of US soybean oil has a bottom support, and it is expected to be in a shock - neutral or shock - bullish state in the medium term. The price difference between domestic and foreign soybean oil may converge, mainly through domestic price increases [4] - Maintain the idea of buying on dips for soybean oil and palm oil. Palm oil will face a production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter [4] [菜粕&菜油] - Domestic rapeseed meal shows a slight increase, and rapeseed oil shows a slight decline. The price of Canadian rapeseed futures continues to decline due to favorable weather [6] - The inventory of domestic rapeseed continues to decline, and the import expectation has not improved. The rapeseed meal market is affected by the seasonal peak season of aquatic feed. The rapeseed market will remain in a shock state in the short term [6] [玉米] - The excellent rate of US corn is 73%, and the price continues to decline. In China, the continuous release of grain sources affects market expectations, and Dalian corn futures are running weakly at the bottom [7] - The new - season corn planting area may expand, and there is a high probability of a bumper harvest. The domestic corn market has not yet seen a structural change in supply and demand [7] [生猪] - The spot price of live pigs has a slight decline and remains weak. The far - month contracts except the 09 contract show a slight rebound. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August increases by 6.6% month - on - month [8] - The number of sows and new - born piglets continues to increase, and the live pig futures price is not optimistic in the long term [8] [鸡蛋] - The spot price of eggs is weak, and most provinces are still falling. The 09 contract on the futures market rebounds with a large - scale reduction of positions [9] - In the future, attention should be paid to the holiday stocking demand and the impact of cold - storage eggs on the spot market. The egg price needs to continue to decline for in - depth capacity reduction [9]