宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250807

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to see the price fluctuate at a high level. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks for iron ore 2509 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively. The core logic is that the fundamental expectation is weakening, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of the ore price. It is suggested to focus on the support at the MA20 line [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously decreasing. However, steel mills' profitability is still good, and ore demand remains at a relatively high level, providing some support for the ore price. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, while the shipments of overseas miners have decreased, but the reduction is not significant under high ore prices. Domestic ore production has contracted again. It is expected that the overall ore supply will increase steadily. - Currently, the resilience of ore demand is acceptable, supporting the high - level operation of the ore price. But as the supply is increasing, there is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillatory consolidation state. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [3]