宝城期货国债期货早报-20250807

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on TL2509 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is that there is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the main Treasury bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The main reason is that the market interest rate is close to the policy rate, and the moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged, causing the market interest rate to decline since August and the Treasury bond futures to rebound after hitting the bottom. However, the obvious stock - bond seesaw effect and the rapid rise in the stock market's risk appetite suppress the bond market demand and restrict the rebound space of Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: oscillation with a slight upward bias; overall view: oscillation. Core logic: Expectation of loose monetary policy exists, but short - term interest rate cut probability is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: oscillation with a slight upward bias; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillation. Core logic: Treasury bond futures showed a trend of rising and then falling yesterday, with narrow - range oscillation. Market interest rates have declined since August due to the moderately loose monetary policy. However, the stock - bond seesaw effect restricts the rebound space of Treasury bond futures. Short - term Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].