Guoxin Securities·2025-08-07 01:19Group 1: Company Overview - Shanghai Industrial Holdings (00363.HK) is a comprehensive enterprise with four core businesses: infrastructure and environmental protection, healthcare, real estate, and consumer products [8][9] - The company has stable revenue and cash flow from its toll road operations, which include key highways connecting Shanghai to various regions [8] - The water business has a daily processing capacity exceeding 20 million tons, ranking among the top in the country [8] Group 2: Real Estate Performance - The real estate segment reported a loss of HKD 236 million in 2024 due to impairment losses on property projects [9] - The company holds a total land reserve of 4.2 million square meters, primarily in Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta [9] Group 3: Consumer Products - The consumer products segment, including Nanyang Tobacco and Yongfa Printing, has seen a significant recovery, with Nanyang Tobacco's net profit increasing by 86% year-on-year to HKD 560 million in 2024 [9] Group 4: Financial Performance and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be HKD 2.943 billion, HKD 3.084 billion, and HKD 3.197 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 4.8%, 4.8%, and 3.7% respectively [10] - The stock is valued between HKD 17.62 and HKD 18.35 per share, indicating a potential premium of 22.5% to 27.6% over the current price [10] Group 5: Industry Insights - The chemical industry, particularly the agricultural chemicals sector, is experiencing rising prices for potassium fertilizers and glyphosate, with domestic potassium chloride prices increasing from CNY 3,239 per ton to CNY 3,399 per ton in July [13][14] - The phosphoric acid market is expected to maintain high price levels due to tight supply and increasing demand from new applications [14][15] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the potassium fertilizer sector include YK International, with expected production of 2.8 million tons and 4 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively [16] - In the phosphoric chemical sector, companies like Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group are highlighted for their rich phosphate reserves [16]