铜周报：基本面承压，铜价震荡下行-20250807

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The copper market is under fundamental pressure, and copper prices are expected to oscillate downward. The US economic recession risk and interest - rate cut expectations are rising, and the market sentiment is weak. The high inventory and insufficient subsequent demand in the US copper market, along with poor spot demand during the off - season in the Shanghai copper market, contribute to the unfavorable outlook [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Market Sentiment and Price Movements - On Friday, China's July economic data fell short of expectations, the US announced full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data was disappointing with significant downward revisions of the previous two months' data. The dollar tumbled at night while the RMB soared, and the market weakened. However, positive data from China's automotive and machinery industries improved market sentiment during the day, with most non - ferrous metals rising, including Shanghai copper, international copper, LME copper, and domestic spot copper [1]. - Technically, LME copper oscillated slightly higher around $9670, and Shanghai copper rebounded after hitting a low, closing at 78330. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, indicating cautious market sentiment [2]. Inventory and Premium - This week, the inventory of US copper and LME copper increased significantly, while the inventory of Shanghai copper decreased slightly. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium dropped slightly to $50.5, suggesting poor domestic spot demand [1]. - The LME spot discount narrowed slightly to - $49 this week, indicating weak external spot demand. The copper price ratio of LME to Shanghai copper rose to 8.17, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased to 180 points, with the external market ratio slightly higher than the domestic market, showing weak market sentiment [1]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium (Yuan/Ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (USD/Ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | July 29 | 7.1808 | 220 | 51.5 | - 54 | 8.04 | | July 30 | 7.2120 | 520 | 48 | - 52 | 8.06 | | July 31 | 7.2093 | 580 | 48 | - 47 | 8.11 | | August 1 | 7.1981 | 40 | 52.5 | - 51 | 8.09 | | August 4 | 7.1783 | 180 | 50.5 | - 49 | 8.17 | [3]