Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The policy shows care for the capital market, and the overall direction is to buy on dips, but short - term market volatility may intensify [3]. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term [5]. - Due to Trump's influence on the Fed and weak employment data, the Fed is likely to implement a more accommodative monetary policy, and it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [6][7]. - For most metals, although there are certain price - supporting factors, the price increase space is limited due to factors such as off - season demand and supply - side policies [9][10][11][13][14][15][16][17]. - In the black building materials sector, the overall fundamentals are weak, and the disk price may gradually return to the real trading logic, and attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side [22]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies should be formulated according to their own characteristics [35][37][39][40][41][43][44][45][46]. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply - demand relationship and price trends of various products are different, and attention should be paid to factors such as policies, seasons, and international trade [51][52][53][55][57][59]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Index Futures - News: Three departments issued a rural road improvement plan; State Grid's power load hit a record high; Shanghai issued a development plan for the embodied intelligence industry; The photovoltaic association solicited opinions on the Price Law [2]. - Basis ratio: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios [3]. - Trading logic: The policy shows care for the capital market, and the short - term market may fluctuate, but the overall direction is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts have different price changes [4]. - News: Vietnam's exports and imports increased in July; A - share margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan [4]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of funds on the day [4]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may be volatile in the short - term [5]. Precious Metals - Market: Gold and silver prices in Shanghai and COMEX have different changes; The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are at certain levels [6]. - Market outlook: Fed officials' dovish remarks and Trump's influence on the Fed increase the expectation of loose monetary policy, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: Copper prices rebounded, and LME and domestic inventories changed; The basis and import profit and loss also changed [9]. - Outlook: The Fed's expected interest rate cut supports copper prices, but the upside is limited due to factors such as off - season demand and supply - side policies [9]. Aluminum - Market: Aluminum prices rose, and domestic and LME inventories changed; The basis and market sentiment also changed [10]. - Outlook: The low domestic inventory supports aluminum prices, but the upside is limited due to off - season demand and export pressure [10]. Zinc - Market: Zinc prices fell, and domestic and LME inventories changed; The basis and market sentiment also changed [11]. - Outlook: The risk of zinc price decline increases due to factors such as increased supply and weakening support factors [11][12]. Lead - Market: Lead prices rose, and domestic and LME inventories changed; The basis and market sentiment also changed [13]. - Outlook: The upside of lead prices is limited due to factors such as sufficient supply and slow inventory increase [13]. Nickel - Market: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed; The market sentiment and trading volume also changed [14]. - Outlook: Nickel prices are affected by nickel iron prices, and there is still pressure for price correction due to limited short - term demand improvement [14]. Tin - Market: Tin prices rebounded slightly, and domestic and LME inventories changed; The prices of tin concentrate and the supply - demand situation also changed [15]. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to factors such as the expected increase in supply and weak demand [15]. Carbonate Lithium - Market: Carbonate lithium prices were stable, and the futures price rose; The market sentiment and trading volume also changed [16]. - Outlook: The supply - demand relationship is expected to improve, and the bottom of lithium prices is supported, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed [16]. Alumina - Market: Alumina prices rose, and the futures price and trading volume changed; The spot price, basis, and import profit and loss also changed [17]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices due to factors such as oversupply and weakening market sentiment [17]. Stainless Steel - Market: Stainless steel prices fell slightly, and the futures price and trading volume changed; The spot price, basis, and inventory also changed [18]. - Outlook: The short - term market is optimistic, and prices may fluctuate strongly [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose, and the futures price and trading volume changed; The spot price, basis, and inventory also changed [19]. - Outlook: The price increase space is limited due to off - season demand and weak supply - demand [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed, and the futures price, trading volume, and inventory also changed [21]. - Outlook: The overall fundamentals are weak, and the disk price may return to the real trading logic, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and cost support [22]. Iron Ore - Market: Iron ore prices fell, and the futures price, trading volume, and inventory also changed [23]. - Outlook: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate mainly due to factors such as limited supply growth and demand support [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Prices fell, and the spot price, inventory, and market sentiment also changed; It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [25]. - Soda Ash: Prices fluctuated, and the spot price, inventory, and market sentiment also changed; It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: Prices rebounded, and the futures price, trading volume, and spot price also changed [27]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for investment positions and participate in hedging positions opportunistically [27][28]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Prices rose, and the futures price, trading volume, and spot price also changed; It is recommended to be cautious due to factors such as oversupply and weak demand [30][31]. - Polysilicon: Prices rose, and the futures price, trading volume, and spot price also changed; It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: Prices rebounded and then fluctuated, and the views of bulls and bears are different; Tire factory operating rates decreased, and inventory increased [35][36]. - Strategy: It is recommended to be neutral and slightly bullish, and conduct short - term operations [36]. Crude Oil - Market: Prices fell, and the EIA data showed changes in inventory [37]. - Outlook: Crude oil has upward momentum, but the upside is limited in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips and set a target price [38]. Methanol - Market: Prices fluctuated narrowly, and the supply - demand and inventory situation changed; The valuation is high, and prices face pressure [39]. Urea - Market: Prices fell, and the supply - demand and inventory situation changed; It is a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - positions on dips [40]. Styrene - Market: Spot prices were unchanged, and futures prices rose; The cost, supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; BZN is expected to repair, and prices may rise with the cost side [41][42]. PVC - Market: Prices rose, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; It is a situation of strong supply and weak demand and high valuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [43]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: Prices rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; The valuation is high, and prices may decline in the short - term [44]. PTA - Market: Prices rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; It is expected to accumulate inventory, and attention should be paid to following PX to buy on dips [45]. p - Xylene - Market: Prices rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; It is expected to reduce inventory, and attention should be paid to following crude oil to buy on dips [46]. Polyethylene - Market: Futures prices fell, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; Prices may be affected by the cost and supply sides in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold short - positions [47][48]. Polypropylene - Market: Futures prices fell, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly with crude oil in July [49]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: Prices were half - stable and half - falling, and the supply - demand and market sentiment changed; Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [51]. Eggs - Market: Prices were stable or falling, and the supply - demand and market sentiment changed; It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium - term and reduce short - positions on dips in the short - term [52]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: US soybeans fell slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rose slightly; The supply - demand and inventory situation changed; It is recommended to buy on dips in the cost range and pay attention to the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [53][54]. Oils and Fats - Market: Palm oil prices fluctuated, and the supply - demand and inventory situation changed; The policy and inventory support the price center, but the upside is limited, and it is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective [55][56]. Sugar - Market: Prices fluctuated weakly, and the supply - demand and inventory situation changed; Prices are likely to continue to fall in the future [57][58]. Cotton - Market: Prices fluctuated, and the supply - demand and inventory situation changed; The US cotton growth situation is good, and the market is bearish in the short - term [59].
五矿期货文字早评-20250807
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-07 01:36