宁证期货今日早评-20250807

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of coking coal support its price in the short - term, with prices expected to fluctuate [1]. - Gold is in a high - level oscillation, with a low probability of exceeding the previous high and a slightly bearish mid - term outlook [1]. - Steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but there is a risk of correction if demand is insufficient [3]. - The supply - demand gap of ferrosilicon is expected to be filled, and prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - The pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the short - term [4]. - Rapeseed meal prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [4]. - The palm oil market in Malaysia has a bearish fundamental outlook, and investors are advised to wait and see [5]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Soda ash prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term, and short - selling on rebounds is an option [7]. - Silver shows a slightly bullish oscillating trend [7]. - Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Bond markets have upward momentum in the short - term, and observation is advised [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - Mysteel statistics show that the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants is 36.2%, a 1.19% week - on - week increase; the daily output of clean coal is 260,000 tons, a 6,000 - ton increase; and the clean coal inventory is 2.881 million tons, a 21,000 - ton increase [1]. - After the fifth round of coke price hikes, coke enterprises' profits are further repaired, and the demand for coking coal remains [1]. Gold - Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, and plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [1]. - The expectation of a September interest rate cut increases, the US dollar falls, and gold oscillates at a high level but lacks upward momentum [1]. Rebar - On August 6, the domestic steel market fluctuated strongly, with the price of Tangshan Qian'an billets rising by 10 yuan to 3,090 yuan/ton, and 4 steel mills raising the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - The rise in coking coal futures stimulates the black futures and drives the steel price to stop falling and rebound [3]. Ferrosilicon - The national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 33.76%, a 0.43% week - on - week increase; the daily output is 14,925 tons, a 2.12% (310 - ton) increase [3]. - Steel output is high, but the ferrosilicon supply - demand gap is expected to be filled due to increased production [3]. Pig - On August 6, the national average wholesale price of pork increased by 1.7% to 20.67 yuan/kg, and the egg price decreased by 0.8% to 7.54 yuan/kg [4]. - The pig market has a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the short - term [4]. Rapeseed Meal - On August 6, the total transaction volume of rapeseed meal in major domestic oil mills was 2,000 tons, with different average prices in different regions [4]. - Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is declining, imports are low, and prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term [4]. Palm Oil - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month, with a 19.32% decrease in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.39% increase in oil extraction rate [5]. - In July 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 9.01% to 1.84 million tons [5]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China's drawn - grade polypropylene is 7,069 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton; the capacity utilization rate is 78.22%, a 0.56% increase; the downstream average operating rate is 48.4%, a 0.03 - percentage - point decrease [6]. - Polypropylene supply is abundant, and commercial inventory is expected to remain high in the short - term [6]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,347 yuan/ton, showing a weakening trend; the weekly output is 699,800 tons, a 3.32% decrease; the total inventory of manufacturers is 1.7958 million tons, a 3.69% decrease [7]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly adjusted, with high - price resistance and tepid demand [7]. Silver - Fed official Daly signaled a possible interest rate cut, increasing the market's expectation of a September rate cut [7]. - The US dollar index falls, and silver shows a slightly bullish oscillating trend [7]. Methanol - The port inventory of Chinese methanol is 925,500 tons, a 117,100 - ton increase; the production enterprise inventory is 293,700 tons, a 30,800 - ton decrease; the order backlog is 240,800 tons, a 10,100 - ton increase [8]. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level and rising, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [8]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - On August 7, the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined at the beginning of the session [9]. - Bond markets have upward momentum in the short - term [9].