国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250807

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend analyses and investment suggestions for various commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and the container shipping index (European line). Overall, most commodities are expected to show neutral or weak trends, with some having specific trading strategies such as spreads trading and long - short combinations [2][9][10]. Summaries by Commodities PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Supply - demand pressure increases, and the trend is weak. Hold 9 - 1 reverse spreads. PTA plant out - of - plan maintenance will lead to weaker PX demand [2][9]. - PTA: Spot supply is sufficient, and the basis weakens. Go long on spreads at low levels, and the unilateral trend is weak. The current supply - demand is weak, and the unilateral price is driven downward [2][9]. - MEG: Coal prices support the price. Go long on spreads at low levels, and long MEG short PTA. Unilateral price is oscillating strongly. Overseas device maintenance may reduce imports in September [2][10]. Synthetic Rubber - Short - term oscillating. The departure of speculative funds and the weakening of the commodity index have led to a decline. In the medium - term, it is supported by anti - involution policies and has a neutral fundamental situation [11][13]. Asphalt - Consolidating after a decline. This week, the shipment of domestic asphalt enterprises decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. The short - term trend is neutral [15][30]. LLDPE - The trend is under pressure. The anti - involution policy has little impact. Supply pressure increases in the third quarter, although there may be a phased relief in September. Demand support is weak [31][32]. PP - Spot prices rose in some areas, but trading was light. The short - term trend is neutral, affected by the overall commodity market sentiment [35][36]. Caustic Soda - Treat the peak - season contracts bullishly. Currently in the off - season, the price increase is limited, but the cost is supported. In the long - term, the peak - season demand is expected [38][40]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. Domestic float glass prices decreased slightly, affected by weather and inventory. The short - term trend is neutral [41][42]. Methanol - Oscillating under pressure. The short - term is affected by the departure of speculative funds, and the medium - term is affected by anti - involution policies and port unloading conditions [44][48]. Urea - Bullish factors are less than expected, and it returns to an oscillating pattern. The daily output increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The short - term is affected by export information, and the medium - term is oscillating [49][51]. Styrene - Compress the profit and pay attention to taking profits. It is in a high - output, high - profit, and high - inventory pattern, and is mainly a short - allocation. Focus on compressing the profit position [52][53]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The supply is high, and the demand is tepid. The short - term market is expected to be stable [55][56]. LPG and Propylene - LPG: Cost support is weak. - Propylene: Short - term weak oscillation. The PDH and MTBE operating rates decreased, and the alkylation operating rate increased [58][59]. PVC - Range - bound oscillation. The anti - involution policy has little impact. The industry profit has expanded, but the high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [71][72]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The night session strengthened slightly, and the short - term is oscillating. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Weak in the short - term compared to high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to decline [75]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The fundamental situation remains weak. Hold short positions in the 2510 contract and add short positions at high prices. The shipping company's freight rates are expected to decline, and the market FAK freight rate center may be between 2500 - 2600 US dollars/FEU at the end of August [77][86].