国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Positive Trends: Zinc, lead, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, coking coal are expected to oscillate upwards; industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester chip have potential for positive movement; palm oil is recommended for long - position building at low levels [2][9][12][37][50] - Negative Trends: Para - xylene, LLDPE, LPG, propylene are trending weakly; the container shipping index (European line) has a weak fundamental outlook [2][5] - Oscillating Trends: Copper, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, iron ore, log, synthetic rubber, asphalt, methanol, urea, etc. are in an oscillating phase [2][6][15][17] - Other Situations: PTA has a rebound in monthly spread; MEG rebounds due to the recovery of coal prices; caustic soda's peak - season contracts are treated with a long - position bias [2] 2. Core Views - The market trends of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic news, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. For example, the tariffs imposed by Trump on copper products and other commodities have an impact on the copper market; the changes in Chile's lithium carbonate exports affect the lithium carbonate market [6][25] - Different commodities have different trading strategies based on their trends. For instance, for PX, a reverse spread for contracts 9 - 1 is recommended to be held; for PTA, a positive spread for contracts at low levels is advised; for MEG, a long - MEG and short - PTA/PX strategy is proposed [54][55] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - Copper: The decline of the US dollar supports the price, but Trump's tariff policy on copper products and the suspension of a Chilean copper mine's operation affect the market. The trend intensity is neutral [6][8] - Zinc: It is expected to oscillate upwards. The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and there are news about US - Japan trade agreements [9][10] - Lead: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price, and macro - economic news about the US affects the market. The trend intensity is neutral [12][13] - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to the height of inventory accumulation. Alumina is in short - term oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all neutral [15][16] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel prices are in a narrow - range oscillation due to intensified long - short competition. Stainless steel's supply - demand situation drags down the price, but raw material costs limit the downside. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are neutral [17][18] - Lithium Carbonate: Chile's exports have rebounded, and attention should be paid to the renewal of mining licenses. The trend intensity is neutral [23][26] Energy and Chemicals - Para - xylene: Supply - demand pressure increases, and the trend is weak. The trend intensity is - 1 [2][49] - PTA: The processing fee is at a low level, the load drops unexpectedly, and the monthly spread rebounds. The trend intensity is - 1 [2][49] - MEG: The rebound is driven by the recovery of coal prices. A long - MEG and short - PTA/PX strategy is recommended. The trend intensity is 0 [2][49] - Synthetic Rubber: It is in short - term oscillation. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber has changed, and the market is affected by factors such as speculation funds and policies [56][57] - Asphalt: It is in consolidation after a decline [2][60] Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The fundamental situation remains weak. Hold short positions in contract 10 and add short positions at high levels if appropriate [5] - Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Polyester Chip: The downside space is limited, and they are in short - term oscillation. A long - PF and short - PR strategy is recommended [5]