国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The confrontation between bulls and bears is intensifying, and nickel prices are fluctuating within a narrow range [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: The actual supply - demand situation is dragging down the market, but raw material costs limit the downside space [2][5]. - Lithium Carbonate: Chile's exports are picking up, and attention should be paid to the renewal of mining certificates [2][10]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of market sentiment [2][14]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to today's market news [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 121,070, with a change compared to different previous periods. The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract was 12,935 [5]. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 87,840, and that of the main stainless - steel contract was 82,019 [5]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [5]. - China Enfi's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [6]. - Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and the government may fine violating companies and audit the entire park [6][7]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three to one year [7]. - The approved 2025 production target of the Indonesian nickel - mining association is 364 million tons, higher than that in 2024 [7]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production of all EF lines, expected to affect monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [7][8]. - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit their 2026 work plans and budgets starting from October 2025 [8]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 69,260, and that of the 2511 contract was 69,620. There were corresponding changes in trading volume and open interest [11]. - Various price data such as spot - contract basis, different lithium - salt product prices, and raw - material prices were provided [11]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's lithium - carbonate index price decreased. In July 2025, Chile's lithium - carbonate exports were 20,900 tons, with different changes in exports to different countries [12][13]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - For industrial silicon, the Si2511 closing price was 8,700, and for polysilicon, the PS2511 closing price was 51,345. There were corresponding data on trading volume, open interest, basis, price, profit, inventory, and raw - material costs [14]. Macro and Industry News - On August 1, the US launched anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sunset reviews on Chinese and Taiwanese crystalline - silicon photovoltaic products [15][16]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [16].