Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Fluctuating repeatedly [4][7] - Rebar: Market shows a wait - and - see attitude, with wide - range fluctuations [4][9] - Hot - rolled coil: Market shows a wait - and - see attitude, with wide - range fluctuations [4][9] - Ferrosilicon: Stronger oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Stronger oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][13] - Coke: Stronger oscillation [2][16] - Coking coal: Stronger oscillation [2][16] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][20] Core Views - The report provides the latest price, trading volume, position, and other fundamental data for various black - series commodities, along with their price changes and trend intensities [6][9][13] - It also includes macro and industry news such as manufacturing PMI data, steel production data, and price policy announcements [6][10][11] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price Changes: The futures price closed at 794.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.50% from the previous day; the position decreased by 26,208 lots to 358,293 lots. Among the imported ores, PB (61.5%) dropped 4 yuan to 776 yuan/ton, and the super - special (56.5%) dropped 2 yuan to 650 yuan/ton. The domestic ores remained stable [6] - Macro News: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [6] - Trend Intensity: - 1, showing a relatively bearish trend [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price Changes: The RB2510 futures of rebar closed at 3,234 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 0.75%; the HC2510 futures of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,451 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.41%. The spot prices of rebar in major cities increased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton, while most of the spot prices of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [9] - Industry News: In late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4%, pig iron decreased by 4.5%, and steel products increased by 0.5%. According to the weekly data of Steel Union on July 31, the output of rebar decreased by 0.9 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 5.3 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 15.39 tons [10][11] - Trend Intensity: 0, showing a neutral trend [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price Changes: The silicon iron 2509 futures closed at 5,908 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan; the silicon manganese 2509 futures closed at 6,096 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan. The spot price of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia increased by 100 yuan to 5,500 yuan/ton, and the spot price of silicon manganese increased by 50 yuan to 5,850 yuan/ton [13] - Industry News: On August 6, the price of silicon iron 72 in some regions changed, and UMK announced a 0.15 - dollar increase in the manganese ore quotation for September [14] - Trend Intensity: 1, showing a relatively bullish trend [15] Coke and Coking Coal - Price Changes: The JM2509 futures of coking coal closed at 1,074 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan or 3.8%; the J2509 futures of coke closed at 1,644.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.6%. The spot price of Shanxi's quasi - first - grade coke to the factory increased by 105 yuan to 1,395 yuan/ton [17] - Macro News: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [18] - Trend Intensity: 0, showing a neutral trend [19] Logs - Price Changes: The 2509 contract of logs closed at 832.5 yuan, up 0.4% from the previous day; the trading volume decreased by 52.3%. The spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [21] - Macro News: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [23] - Trend Intensity: 0, showing a neutral trend [23]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250807
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-07 01:44