国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: With repeated macro - sentiment, it is advisable to go long at low levels [2][4] - Soybean oil: It will fluctuate at high levels, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade agreement [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and the Dalian soybean meal will adjust and fluctuate [2][10] - Soybean: One - way auctions have started, and the market will fluctuate [2][10] - Corn: It will run weakly [2][13] - Sugar: It will trade in a narrow range [2][16] - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [2][21] - Eggs: Market sentiment has been realized [2][27] - Live pigs: Near - term spot pressure persists [2][29] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [2][35] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - Fundamental data: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,970 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.04%, and night - session closing price was 9,006 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.40%. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,406 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.74%, and night - session closing price was 8,422 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.19% [4] - Macro and industry news: From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 19.32% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month. Malaysia's palm oil production in July 2025 was estimated to increase by 9.01% [5][7] - Trend intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [9] Soybean meal and Soybean - Fundamental data: DCE soybean 2509's day - session closing price was 4118 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%, and night - session closing price was 4124 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.15%. DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session closing price was 3026 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.13%, and night - session closing price was 3013 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.46% [10] - Macro and industry news: On August 6, CBOT soybeans closed lower, following the decline in the soybean meal market. The US soybean growing area has good weather conditions. The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. On August 8, 10:30, CNGC plans to auction 32,294 tons of domestic soybeans [10][12] - Trend intensity: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of 0 [12] Corn - Fundamental data: Important spot prices such as Jinzhou's closing price decreased by 10 yuan/ton. C2509's day - session closing price was 2,259 yuan/ton with no change, and night - session closing price was 2,267 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.35% [13] - Macro and industry news: Northern corn port prices decreased, and prices in other regions also showed certain changes [14] - Trend intensity: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [15] Sugar - Fundamental data: The raw sugar price was 16.04 cents/pound with a decline of 0.05. The mainstream spot price was 5970 yuan/ton with a decline of 20 [16] - Macro and industry news: Brazil's central - southern region's sugarcane crushing progress has accelerated; India's monsoon precipitation is higher than the long - term average. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [16] - Trend intensity: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [19] Cotton - Fundamental data: CF2601's day - session closing price was 13,850 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22%, and night - session closing price was 13830 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14% [21] - Macro and industry news: The domestic cotton spot market has weak trading, and the cotton yarn market is stable. ICE cotton futures first rose and then fell [22] - Trend intensity: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [25] Eggs - Fundamental data: Egg 2509's closing price was 3,378 yuan/500 kg with an increase of 0.99%. Egg 2601's closing price was 3,624 yuan/500 kg with a decline of 0.11% [27] - Trend intensity: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [27] Live pigs - Fundamental data: Henan's spot price was 14,080 yuan/ton with a decline of 100. The closing price of live pig 2509 was 13,810 yuan/ton with a decline of 75 [31] - Trend intensity: Live pigs have a trend intensity of - 1 [32] - Market logic: The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the price increase was less than expected. The market pressure is large, and the 9 - month contract is expected to be weak. The far - end is supported by macro - sentiment, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread [33] Peanuts - Fundamental data: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,400 yuan/ton with no change. PK510's closing price was 8,092 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22% [35] - Spot market focus: New peanuts in some areas are about to be listed, and the price of old peanuts is stable [36] - Trend intensity: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [37]