金融期货早评-20250807

1. Macroeconomy - Core View: Domestically, the manufacturing PMI has declined marginally and is significantly weaker than the seasonal level in previous years, indicating downward pressure on the economy. The economy has entered a policy observation window, and if economic data continues to weaken, incremental policies may be implemented. Overseas, the next few months will be a crucial observation period for inflation trends. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has been fluctuating, and changes in US inflation data deserve close attention [2] - Market Information: Modi is scheduled to visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit; Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, with exemptions for companies like Apple building factories in the US; Trump has ordered an additional 25% tariff on India; the US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing differences, and the US plans to increase tariffs by 15%; there are signs of a potential meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky; Fed officials have hinted at a possible rate cut; the 10 - year US Treasury bond auction was unexpectedly weak [1][3][5][28] 2. RMB Exchange Rate - Core Logic: Based on the "dollar - mid - price - spot price" analysis framework, the market has fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September, and the dollar index is likely to consolidate. With the central bank's guidance and the trade surplus from January to June, the short - term exchange rate is expected to find support in the range of 7.15 - 7.23, with a central anchor of 7.20 [4] - Market Information: Fed official Kashkari believes two rate cuts this year are reasonable; Trump will announce the appointment of a new Fed governor in 2 - 3 days; trade negotiations between Switzerland and the US have not made progress; Trump plans to impose tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and additional tariffs on India and other countries [3] 3. Stock Index - Core View: The stock market continued to rise yesterday, mainly driven by foreign capital inflows and active participation of hot money. The CSI 1000 index showed relative strength, while the Shanghai 50 index was weak. Short - term external tariff adjustments have increased risk - aversion sentiment, while foreign capital inflows have brought vitality. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to face upward pressure [5] - Market Information: The margin balance has returned to the two - trillion - yuan mark; Trump has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods and plans to levy high tariffs on chips [5] - Strategy Suggestion: Sell cash - secured put options [5] 4. Treasury Bonds - Core Logic: Although the bond market's gains narrowed in the afternoon, there are signs of sentiment improvement, such as relative desensitization to the strong performance of the stock and commodity markets and continuous net purchases by funds [7] - Market Information: South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists; the US plans to sell weapons to Ukraine [6] - Investment Strategy: Appropriate layout of long positions [7] 5. Container Shipping - Core View: Some mainstream shipping companies have continuously lowered the spot cabin quotes for European routes, which led to the lower opening of futures prices. Maersk's adjustment of shipping routes may increase port congestion and affect the effective capacity of European routes, which is beneficial for the long - term futures prices. However, the decline in spot quotes of some shipping companies has limited the upside of futures prices. In the future, the EC is expected to be in a volatile or slightly downward trend [9] - Market Information: The US has imposed a 30% tariff on South Africa, causing Maersk to terminate direct shipping between the US and South Africa; Trump plans to impose tariffs on imported drugs [8][9] 6. Commodities 6.1 Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - Core View: Due to weak US economic data and government pressure on the Fed, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, driving up the prices of gold and silver. In the medium - to - long - term, the trend is bullish, and in the short - term, the market is mainly controlled by bulls [10] - Market Information: Fed official Kashkari believes two rate cuts this year are appropriate [10] 6.2 Copper - Core View: Copper prices have shown a slight correction. The difference between LME copper and COMEX copper prices has stabilized. Short - term oversold conditions in COMEX copper may boost the valuation of other copper markets, but investors should be wary of weak demand [11][12] - Market Information: US ISM non - manufacturing data is poor [12] 6.3 Zinc - Core View: The continuous decline in overseas zinc inventories provides support for zinc prices. Although the domestic fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, the bottom of zinc prices is expected to be supported. In the short - term, zinc prices are likely to be volatile with a relatively strong trend [12][13] 6.4 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Core View: The trend of nickel is volatile, and the overall logic has not changed significantly. The price of nickel ore has stabilized with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are differentiated. The supply of stainless steel is strong, and the demand is weak, but the spot price is relatively firm. The supply of nickel sulfate is tight [14][15] 6.5 Tin - Core View: Tin prices have shown some resilience. Supply - side issues have not been resolved quickly, and if the situation in Myanmar drags on, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand on tin prices has not been fully reflected [17] 6.6 Carbonate Lithium - Core View: The futures price of carbonate lithium has fluctuated higher. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain has weakened slightly. Supply - side disturbances still exist, and the issue of mining certificates continues to ferment. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile and slightly upward state in the near term [18][19] 6.7 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Core View: Cost - side factors drive up prices, and sentiment continues to stimulate the market. In the short - term, the trend is bullish. In the medium - to - long - term, the downside of industrial silicon is limited, and opportunities for buying on dips should be noted. For polysilicon, attention should be paid to industrial integration [20][22][23] 6.8 Lead - Core View: After two days of bottom - range oscillation, lead prices rose according to the peak - season expectation. The supply of primary lead is relatively strong, and the cost of recycled lead can support prices. The demand side is approaching the peak season, and the willingness to stock up for production has increased. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile state [24] 6.9 Black Metals 6.9.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Core View: The inspection and reduction of coal mine over - production are ongoing, and there are also news of steel production reduction. Although it is the off - season, the demand shows the characteristic of being not weak in the off - season. The near - term contracts face delivery pressure, and the upper space is limited, but the lower space is supported [25][26] - Market Information: The government plans to renovate 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027; some coal mines have production reduction expectations [25] 6.9.2 Iron Ore - Core View: The rise of coking coal suppresses the price of iron ore. The profit of steel mills has weakened significantly, and the seesaw effect between iron ore and coking coal is more prominent. The price of iron ore is expected to face upward pressure [27] - Market Information: Some coal mines have production reduction expectations, and the output and inventory of steel products have changed [27] 6.9.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Core View: The expectation of coking coal production reduction supports the strengthening of the market. The 5 - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, and the coking profit has been repaired. In the medium - to - long - term, the outlook for coking coal and coke is not pessimistic, but attention should be paid to macro events [28][29] - Market Information: Trump has imposed tariffs on related countries; the government plans to renovate rural roads; the production and inventory data of coking coal and coke have changed [28] 6.9.4 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Core View: The cost support for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has strengthened. The profits of steel mills are good, which provides support for the demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. However, in the long - term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the support from the supply side is insufficient. In the short - term, the market still has some expectations for supply - side contraction [30][31][32] 6.10 Energy and Chemicals 6.10.1 Crude Oil - Core View: The overnight crude - oil market冲高回落 and closed down. The current fundamentals are mixed. Bullish factors include the decline in US crude - oil and refined - product inventories, Saudi Arabia's significant increase in official prices, and Trump's tariff measures. Bearish factors include the possible cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. As seasonal demand weakens, the risk of supply surplus increases, and the upward space is limited [33][35] - Market Information: Saudi Arabia has raised the official price of light oil in September; US EIA weekly data shows changes in inventory, production, and trade; Trump has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods [33][34] 6.10.2 LPG - Core View: The LPG market is in a low - level volatile state. The supply side is still relatively loose, and the demand side has not changed much. The overall situation remains loose [36][37][38] 6.10.3 PTA - PX - Core View: The prices of PX - PTA have declined under the influence of commodity sentiment. The supply of PX is expected to increase in August, and the profit margin has been compressed. The supply of PTA has decreased, and the inventory has increased slightly. The demand for polyester has declined, but there is a peak - season expectation. Currently, the PTA processing fee is at a historical low, and there is an opportunity to expand the processing fee by buying on dips [39][40][41] 6.10.4 MEG - Bottle Grade - Core View: The "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the price of ethylene glycol has weakened. The supply side has increased, and the profit has been compressed. The inventory of the East China port has decreased slightly. In general, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the third quarter, and the price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile state [42] 6.10.5 Methanol - Core View: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the methanol market has returned to the fundamentals, which are currently weak. Factors such as the shutdown of Xingxing, the high - volume shipment from Iran in July, and poor downstream profits should be noted. In the short - term, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to downstream resistance and the port - inland price difference [43][44] 6.10.6 PP - Core View: The PP market is in a short - term volatile state. The supply side is under pressure from new device production and the recovery of PDH profit. The demand side is still weak, and the imbalance between supply and demand cannot be fundamentally resolved in the short - term. It is affected by macro sentiment and coking - coal prices [45][46] 6.10.7 PE - Core View: The PE market is currently affected by external factors and lacks a directional driver. The supply side has increased, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The inventory of LLDPE is at a high level. However, downstream orders are expected to recover in August, and the demand is expected to pick up [47][48] 6.10.8 Pure Benzene and Styrene - Core View: Pure benzene: The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to be in a volatile state, and it is advisable to reduce the price difference between pure benzene and styrene by selling at high prices. Styrene: The supply is expected to increase in August and September, and the market is expected to be weak. It is advisable to short on rallies and reduce the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [49][50] 6.10.9 Fuel Oil - Core View: The fuel - oil market is still weak. The supply has improved, and the demand has shown some recovery. The inventory is at a high level, and the short - term driving force is downward [52] 6.10.10 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Core View: The low - sulfur fuel - oil market has been dragged down by crude - oil prices. The supply has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. It is advisable to have a bearish allocation [53] 6.10.11 Asphalt - Core View: The asphalt market is weakly volatile following the cost side. The supply has increased, and the demand has been suppressed by weather and capital shortages. In the short - term, the fundamentals have weakened, but in the long - term, the demand is expected to pick up in the peak season [53][54] 6.10.12 Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda Ash: The market sentiment has fluctuated, and the supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The demand for soda ash is expected to be weak, and the supply - demand pattern is that supply is stronger than demand. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [55] - Glass: The market is affected by policy expectations and fundamentals. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is in a weak - balance state. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [56] - Caustic Soda: As it approaches August, the 09 contract may start the delivery logic. The supply is expected to increase, and the cost is stable. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the peak - season performance [57] 6.10.13 Pulp - Core View: The pulp market has support on dips. The supply and inventory are at high levels, and the demand is difficult to see a significant long - term increase. However, the demand may be seasonally boosted in August. The market has adjusted with the decline in sentiment and is expected to be supported at the current level [58][59] 6.10.14 Logs - Core View: The "autumn fat contract" has opened. The price of the 09 contract revolves around the warehouse - receipt cost. Non - industrial customers are advised to trade in a range, and industrial customers can hedge to lock in profits [61] 6.10.15 Propylene - Core View: The propylene market is in a weakly volatile state. The cost side is affected by external factors, the supply side is relatively loose, and the demand side has not changed much. The Shandong market has strengthened due to the reduction in the supply - demand gap [63][64] 6.11 Agricultural Products 6.11.1 Hogs - Core View: The price of hogs is weakly stable, with strong supply and weak demand. The market has the sentiment of withholding hogs from sale. It is advisable to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [66] 6.11.2 Oilseeds - Core View: The outer - market US soybeans have fallen due to concerns about new - crop exports and favorable planting weather. The inner - market has given back the sentiment - driven increase. The supply of imported soybeans is expected to face a gap after December. The short - term decline space of domestic soybean meal is limited, and the market is gradually pricing in the supply gap of the far - month contracts. For rapeseed meal, the near - month contracts are relatively strong, and the far - month contracts are expected to de - stock faster. It is advisable to go long on the far - month contracts on dips [67][68] 6.11.3 Oils - Core View: The vegetable - oil market is in a slightly upward volatile state recently, with soybean oil being relatively stronger within the sector. The supply pressure of palm oil has increased, the soybean - producing areas lack weather - driven factors, and the driving force for rapeseed oil is limited. Attention should be paid to relevant policies and trade relations [69] 6.11.4 Corn and Starch - Core View: The corn market is in a weakly volatile state, and the trading is dull. The price of corn has declined slightly in the Northeast, and the demand is still weak. The price of corn starch is generally stable, and the demand from the syrup industry provides some support [70]