宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250807

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to show a short - term upward trend, with a mid - term oscillation and an intraday oscillation with a stronger bias. The view is to be bullish in the short run due to the cold non - farm payrolls and increased market risk - aversion demand [1][3] - Copper is expected to have a short - term upward trend, a mid - term oscillation, and an intraday oscillation with a stronger bias. The view is to be bullish in the short run as the domestic atmosphere has warmed up and copper prices have stabilized and rebounded [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term: Upward; Mid - term: Oscillation; Intraday: Oscillation with a stronger bias; Reference view: Bullish in the short run. The core logic is that the unexpected non - farm payrolls in early August and the previous inflation rebound have increased the expectation of a US economic recession, driving the rapid rebound of gold prices. Also, the expectation of Fed rate cuts may rise, and the US dollar index may weaken, which is beneficial to gold prices. The market currently expects 3 rate cuts this year. Short - term attention should be paid to the upper limit of the oscillation of New York gold since the second quarter [1][3] Copper - Short - term: Upward; Mid - term: Oscillation; Intraday: Oscillation with a stronger bias; Reference view: Bullish in the short run. The core logic is that macroscopically, the domestic atmosphere is good, while overseas, US economic data has been continuously below expectations. The market atmosphere is still stable. At the industrial level, upstream production is high, downstream demand is in the off - season and is weakening marginally, and electrolytic copper inventories are rising. With macro - level benefits and industrial - level drawbacks, copper prices are expected to continue to stabilize and rebound [1][5]