宝城期货原油早报-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of volatility, and an intraday view of weak volatility [1][5] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - frame Views - Short - term: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1] - Medium - term: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1] - Intraday: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is weakly volatile, and the reference view is a weak run [1][5] 3.2 Core Logic - Supply side: Eight major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September this year. Although OPEC+ started to relax voluntary production cuts in April, the production increase has not reached the target. OPEC's June production increased by 349,000 barrels per day, and the 8 countries in the agreement's production - increase period increased production by 394,000 barrels per day [5] - Macro - environment: Macro sentiment has weakened due to Trump's proposed tariff collection in the US, and supply pressure is prominent. Against this backdrop, on Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 1.23% lower at 498.0 yuan per barrel [5] 3.3 Market Performance and Forecast - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 1.23% lower at 498.0 yuan per barrel. It is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [5]