国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper: The decline of the US dollar supports the price [2][4] - Zinc: The price is expected to oscillate upwards [2][7] - Lead: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [2][10] - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to the height of inventory accumulation [2][13] - Alumina: Short - term oscillation [2][13] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][13] - Nickel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and the nickel price fluctuates in a narrow range [2][16] - Stainless steel: The current supply - demand situation drags down the price, while the raw material cost limits the downside space [2][17] Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the SHFE copper main contract was 78,280 yuan, down 0.38%; the LME copper 3M electronic disk was at 9,674 US dollars, up 0.41%. The trading volume of the SHFE copper main contract was 56,389 lots, an increase of 13,597 lots; the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 12,883 lots, a decrease of 5,870 lots. The SHFE copper inventory was 20,346 tons, an increase of 1,579 tons; the LME copper inventory was 156,125 tons, an increase of 2,275 tons [4] - Macro and Industry News: Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, and exclude Treasury Secretary Bessent from being the Fed chairman. The US ISM services PMI shows signs of weakness, and the price index is high. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting from August 1st. Chile's Codelco suspended the operation of the El Teniente copper mine [4][6] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [6] Zinc - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,380 yuan, unchanged; the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was at 2,750 US dollars, down 0.15%. The trading volume of the SHFE zinc main contract was 89,569 lots, an increase of 4,120 lots; the LME zinc trading volume was 7,339 lots, a decrease of 826 lots. The SHFE zinc inventory was 14,375 tons, a decrease of 432 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 89,225 tons, a decrease of 3,050 tons [7] - News: The US - Japan trade agreement has continued differences, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff basis [8] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [8] Lead - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16,855 yuan, up 0.48%; the LME lead 3M electronic disk was at 1,975.5 US dollars, up 0.61%. The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract was 48,645 lots, an increase of 8,512 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 6,919 lots, a decrease of 97 lots. The SHFE lead inventory was 58,656 tons, unchanged; the LME lead inventory was 268,600 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons [10] - News: Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, and exclude Treasury Secretary Bessent from being the Fed chairman. The US ISM services PMI shows signs of weakness, and the price index is high [11] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [11] Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,650 yuan, up 90 yuan; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,622 US dollars, up 57 US dollars. The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 3,241 yuan, up 14 yuan. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,075 yuan, up 70 yuan. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 54.70 million tons, unchanged [13] - Comprehensive News: Before the 39% tariff took effect, the Swiss leader's visit to the US was fruitless. Trump ordered an additional 25% tariff on India [15] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0 [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract was 121,070 yuan, up 160 yuan; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,935 yuan, down 25 yuan. The trading volume of the SHFE nickel main contract was 87,840 lots, an increase of 3,022 lots; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 82,019 lots, an increase of 2,193 lots [17] - Macro and Industry News: Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US. The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended production of all EF production lines [17][18][19] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [21]