沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减，国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250807

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, but the traditional domestic consumption off - season has suppressed downstream demand. The total domestic and foreign electrolytic copper inventories are oscillating upwards, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain volatile. It is recommended that investors take profits on their previous short positions when the price drops. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Copper Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On August 6, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,280, a decrease of 300 from the previous day; the trading volume was 26,388 lots, an increase of 13,597 lots; the open interest was 158,574 lots, a decrease of 1,292 lots; the inventory was 20,346 tons, an increase of 1,579 tons [2] - Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,350, a decrease of 265 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 70, an increase of 35; the spot premium/discount of Guangzhou electrolytic copper was - 55, unchanged; the spot premium/discount of North China electrolytic copper was - 120, unchanged; the spot premium/discount of East China electrolytic copper was - 15, a decrease of 15; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 10, unchanged; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 10, a decrease of 10; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 10, a decrease of 10 [2] - London Copper: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 6, 2025, was 9,674; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 9,674, an increase of 39.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 62.62, an increase of 4.7; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 144.79, a decrease of 2.18; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0918, a decrease of 0.06 [2] - COMEX Copper: The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 6, 2025, was 4.413, a decrease of 0.04 from the previous day; the total inventory was 263,104, an increase of 1,924 [2] 3.2 Industry News - Copper Foil Industry: Benefiting from good terminal orders, the copper foil industry's operating rate is on the rise. In July 2025, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises was 77.28%, a month - on - month increase of 2.50 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.00 percentage points. SMM predicts that the overall operating rate of the copper foil industry in August 2025 will continue to rise to 78.24% [2] - Project News: On August 6, the environmental assessment approval of Anhui Zhongzui Copper Co., Ltd.'s annual production project of 40,000 tons of copper strip blanks and tool steel was publicly announced. The project is expected to have an annual production capacity of 40,000 tons after completion. The PT Cresik smelter in Indonesia has entered maintenance due to a fault in the oxygen supply equipment, with an estimated impact on production of about 20,000 tons [2] 3.3 Mine - related News - Production Adjustments and Accidents: Multiple mines have production adjustments and accidents. For example, Codelco's El Teniente copper mine in Chile suspended mining due to a collapse on July 31; Teck Resources lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in 2025; several mines had accidents such as collapses, gas poisoning, and mechanical failures, which affected production [3] - New Projects and Expansions: Some mines have new projects or expansions. For example, Tongling Nonferrous' Mirado copper mine in Ecuador may have a second - phase 850,000 - ton production capacity put into operation in the second half of 2025; the second - phase expansion project of Julong copper mine may be put into operation by the end of 2025 [3] 3.4 Investment and Trading Strategies - Investment Strategy: The domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume in August may increase month - on - month. The Chinese copper concentrate import index is negative but has risen compared with last week. The outbound (inbound, inventory) volume of copper concentrate at ports in the world (China) has decreased (increased, decreased) compared with last week [3] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended that investors take profits on their previous short positions when the price drops. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (74,000 - 76,000 and 80,000 - 81,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200), and US copper (4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0) [3]