国新国证期货早报-20250807

Report Overview - The report provides daily analysis and insights on various commodities and financial markets, including overseas and domestic macroeconomics, stock indices, and futures contracts for commodities such as coal, sugar, rubber, and agricultural products. 1. Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas Macro - Early in the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined, but the August 1st non - farm payrolls data raised concerns about US employment and economic downturn. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year have increased, which is favorable for gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues [1]. Domestic Macro - In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI remained above the critical point. Attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations between the US and economies such as China and Mexico [1]. 2. Asset Views Domestic Assets - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [1]. Overseas Assets - Concerns about US employment decline and economic slowdown are rising. The long - term weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and be vigilant against volatility spikes [1]. 3. Stock Index Analysis A - share Market - On August 6th, the three major A - share indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new closing high for the year, with a 0.45% increase to 3633.99 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 11177.78 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.66% to 2358.95 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1734.1 billion yuan, an increase of 138 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. CSI 300 Index - On August 6th, the CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4113.48, a环比 increase of 10.04 [2]. 4. Commodity Futures Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - On August 6th, the coke weighted index showed a strong oscillation, closing at 1696.6, a环比 increase of 46.7. The coking coal weighted index maintained an upward - trending oscillation, closing at 1194.6 yuan, a环比 increase of 79.7. Some mines in Linfen have been shut down for rectification, and the supply of coking coal is difficult to increase significantly in the short term. The fifth round of coke price increases has been fully implemented, and the profitability of coke enterprises has improved [2][3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - International oil price decline and concerns about global demand weakness have pressured the US sugar market. Affected by the decline of US sugar and spot price adjustments, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined slightly on August 6th. As of July 31st, Yunnan's cumulative sugar sales reached 1.9514 million tons, with a sales rate of 80.68% [5]. Rubber - Due to large short - term gains, the Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and adjusted on August 6th. From January to June 2025, Hainan's natural rubber output was 91,900 tons, a 6.0% decrease compared to 2024 [6]. Soybean Meal - On August 6th, the international CBOT soybean futures closed down. The new - season soybean planting in Brazil is expected to expand, which will make the global soybean supply more abundant. The domestic soybean meal futures price showed a trend of rising and then falling. The domestic supply is sufficient, but there are concerns about future supply shortages, so the soybean meal may oscillate widely [7]. Live Pigs - On August 6th, live pig futures closed up. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the mid - term production capacity is still being released. The demand is weak due to high - temperature weather and reduced school procurement. The overall live pig market is in a state of loose supply and demand [8]. Palm Oil - On August 6th, palm oil futures failed to continue the previous day's strength. From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.27% compared to the same period last month [8]. Shanghai Copper - Globally, LME copper inventories are high, while SHFE inventories are low. US copper inventory may flow back, which may suppress prices. Technically, Shanghai copper is in a state of oscillation [10]. Cotton - On the night of August 6th, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,660 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 90 lots compared to the previous day, and the cotton growth in Xinjiang is good, with the expected harvest time one week earlier than usual [10]. Logs - On August 6th, the 2509 log futures contract opened at 829, with a low of 826, a high of 836, and a close of 832.5, with a reduction of 370 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The increase in external quotes has driven up the domestic futures price [10][11]. Steel - On August 6th, the rb2510 contract closed at 3,234 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3,451 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in coking coal futures has driven up steel prices. In the short term, steel prices may be strong, but there is a risk of correction if demand is insufficient [11]. Alumina - On August 6th, the ao2509 contract closed at 3,241 yuan/ton. The sentiment of "anti - involution" has cooled down. The supply of alumina has increased, and the market may maintain a range - bound oscillation [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 6th, the al2509 contract closed at 20,650 yuan/ton. The macro environment is relatively cold, and the supply of aluminum is increasing slightly while the demand is shrinking. The aluminum price may oscillate within a range [12].