铅锌日评：区间整理-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead market has no obvious contradictions with both supply and demand increasing. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with inventory accumulation. However, the continuous decline in overseas LME zinc inventory provides some support, and short - term zinc prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,725 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 16,855 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [1] - The Shanghai lead basis was - 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 48,645 lots, up 21.21%; the open interest was 65,019 lots, down 9.80%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.75, up 34.38% [1] - LME lead inventory was 268,600 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 58,656 tons, unchanged; the closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) was 1,997 dollars/ton, up 1.09%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.44, down 0.60% [1] Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is relatively stable, while secondary lead production is affected by factors such as high waste lead - acid battery prices and limited recycling sources, with some refineries reducing or suspending production. But as the electrolytic lead factory inventory decreases, the acceptance of high - priced secondary lead improves, and secondary lead production is gradually recovering [1] - In July, the market still has expectations for peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspend purchases during the monthly inventory check at the end of the week [1] Industry News - In the "China Sinopec 2025 Annual Routine Demand High - Performance Battery Centralized Procurement Framework Agreement Public Tendering for Acid Battery Equipment Procurement Tendering", Hoppecke won the bid as the first - ranked bidder again [1] Zinc Market Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,260 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - The Shanghai zinc basis was - 120 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 89,569 lots, up 4.82%; the open interest was 94,254 lots, down 4.28%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.95, up 9.51% [1] - LME zinc inventory was 89,225 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 14,375 tons, down 2.92%; the closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) was 2,795 dollars/ton, up 1.64%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.01, down 1.61% [1] Fundamental Analysis - Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. In the context of continuous raw material supply, it is expected that zinc concentrate processing fees will continue to rise in August, weakening cost support. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and production is increasing significantly [1] - Last week, the decline in zinc prices improved downstream purchasing enthusiasm, but the terminal is in the off - season, and enterprise production has declined [1] Industry News - Affected by Vietnam's tariff increase, the export orders of some galvanized sheet plants in August have declined significantly, and domestic orders are also weak. The operation rate of domestic galvanized sheets in August may continue to decline [1] - Affected by the increased production of mines in Xinjiang, Hebei and other places, the SMM zinc concentrate production increased significantly in July, but there will be mine overhauls in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places in August, and zinc concentrate production may decline slightly month - on - month [1]