生猪：近端现货压力持续

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The market had a consensus expectation of price increases from late July to early August, but the volume - reduction and price - pulling by large - scale pig farms fell short of expectations. Retail farmers and second - fattening groups were panicked. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms in August increased while the demand growth was limited, leading to significant market pressure. The September contract was entering the pre - delivery month, and the futures price was still significantly higher than the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. It is expected to operate weakly. Recently, the macro sentiment has strongly supported the far - end contracts, and the market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, with the spread structure switching to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 CNY/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 CNY/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price was 14,080 CNY/ton, down 100 CNY/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price was 13,450 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price was 15,540 CNY/ton, unchanged year - on - year [3]. - Futures Prices and Trading Volume: The price of the live - hog 2509 contract was 13,810 CNY/ton, down 75 CNY/ton year - on - year, with a trading volume of 15,751 lots (an increase of 2,019 lots from the previous day) and an open interest of 31,663 lots (a decrease of 4,047 lots from the previous day). The price of the live - hog 2511 contract was 14,010 CNY/ton, up 130 CNY/ton year - on - year, with a trading volume of 29,682 lots (an increase of 12,833 lots from the previous day) and an open interest of 58,972 lots (an increase of 3,930 lots from the previous day). The price of the live - hog 2601 contract was 14,310 CNY/ton, up 140 CNY/ton year - on - year, with a trading volume of 13,643 lots (an increase of 6,764 lots from the previous day) and an open interest of 42,444 lots (an increase of 1,957 lots from the previous day) [3]. - Futures Spreads: The basis of the live - hog 2509 contract was 270 CNY/ton, down 25 CNY/ton year - on - year; the basis of the live - hog 2511 contract was 70 CNY/ton, down 230 CNY/ton year - on - year; the basis of the live - hog 2601 contract was - 230 CNY/ton, down 240 CNY/ton year - on - year. The spread between the live - hog 2509 and 2511 contracts was - 200 CNY/ton, down 205 CNY/ton year - on - year, and the spread between the live - hog 2511 and 2601 contracts was - 300 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity was - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [ - 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [4].