甲醇日评：焦煤仍带来情绪扰动-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. Upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair. The methanol valuation is relatively high. The anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, and it's unlikely to significantly reduce methanol supply. Currently, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, and port inventory accumulation is a likely trend, which will suppress the spot price in East China. Although coking coal sentiment will still affect methanol, the rebound space for methanol is expected to be limited based on the weak fundamentals [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2503 yuan/ton on August 6, 2025, up 6 yuan or 0.24% from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2453 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.25%; MA09 closed at 2396 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 0.04% [1] - Methanol spot prices: The daily average price in Taicang was 2387.50 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.84%; in Shandong, it remained unchanged at 2330 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2382.50 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.21%; in Shaanxi and Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei, it remained unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2105 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 1.20% [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 115.50 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [1] Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 was 490 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan or 0.51%; the price of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 562.50 yuan/ton; the price of Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 572.50 yuan/ton [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: The price in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: The profit of coal - based methanol was 457.80 yuan/ton, down 12.60 yuan or - 2.68%; the profit of natural gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 500 yuan/ton [1] - Methanol downstream profit: The profit of Northwest MTO was 49.20 yuan/ton, down 45.20 yuan or - 47.88%; the profit of East China MTO was - 651.07 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan or 1.59%; the profit of acetic acid was 211.42 yuan/ton, down 20.81 yuan or - 8.96%; the profit of MTBE was 187.68 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 11.93%; the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at - 301.60 yuan/ton; the profit of a certain product remained unchanged at 142 yuan/ton [1]