宝城期货资讯早班车-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank has switched the primary goal of monetary policy to promoting a reasonable recovery of prices and stabilizing growth, with a "moderately loose" policy tone sending positive signals. Quasi - fiscal tools may be the core approach for the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies [2][16] - If the three - month average of new non - farm payrolls remains below 100,000 after the US Department of Labor releases August non - farm data in early September, a September interest rate cut is likely [28] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices had a year - on - year quarterly growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the 4.7% of the same period last year [1] - In July 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month; the Non - Manufacturing PMI: Business Activity was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month [1] - In June 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% respectively, with M1 showing a significant increase compared to the previous month [1] - In June 2025, CPI had a year - on - year growth of 0.1%, up from - 0.1% in the previous month; PPI was - 3.6%, down from - 3.3% in the previous month [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In July, the central bank achieved a net liquidity injection of 236.5 billion yuan, 419.5 billion yuan less than the previous month [2][16] - The US President signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, bringing the total tariff rate to 50%, and may impose about 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors [2][19] - Fed officials have different views on interest rate adjustments. Daly believes policy adjustment may be needed in the coming months, while Kashkari expects two interest rate cuts by the end of this year [3][19] - The Baltic Dry Index rose 3.8% to 1994 points [4] 3.2.2 Metals - Gold inventory in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses reached a record high, mainly due to arbitrage trading driven by strong futures demand [5] - India and Russia will deepen cooperation in the aluminum and fertilizer sectors [6] - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with gold in a回调 shock and silver rising due to capital inflows [7] - Most London base metals rose, but tariff policy uncertainty still pressured market sentiment [7] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In late July, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased compared to the previous ten - day period and the same period last year [8] - Due to frequent supply - side rumors in coal mines, the supply expectation has shrunk, and the coking coal futures market has been boosted [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (for Public Comment)" [9][10] - In July, the National Energy Group's power generation reached 123.7 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.4% [10] - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels last week, more than expected [10] - Russia plans to increase oil exports to the West to nearly 2 million barrels per day in August [10] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration agreed to launch the 2025 wheat minimum purchase price implementation plan in eligible areas of Jiangsu Province from August 6 [13] - The investigation of beef safeguard measures is ongoing, and the investigation authority is evaluating whether it meets the conditions for implementing safeguard measures [14] - The Philippines will suspend rice imports for 60 days from September 1 to support local farmers, which may push up global rice prices [14] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On August 6, the central bank conducted 138.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan on the day [15] 3.3.2 Key News - The central bank's monetary policy goal has shifted, and quasi - fiscal tools may be the core for policy coordination [2][16] - Fiscal policy will focus on implementing existing policies, accelerating government bond issuance, and optimizing expenditure structure [16][17] - The issuance of policy - based financial bonds reached a new high on August 6, and after August 8, VAT will be levied on the interest income of new bonds [17] - Brokerage bond issuance has been active this year, with the scale close to 770 billion yuan as of August 5, a year - on - year increase of over 32% [17] - Since the implementation of the science and technology innovation bond regulations, the primary and secondary markets have shown positive development [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - Bank - interbank bond yields mostly declined slightly, and the bond market is in a wait - and - see period with a high probability of short - term fluctuations [21] - Some bonds in the exchange bond market rose, while others fell [21] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.58%, and the trading volume was 87.489 billion yuan [21] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 24 points, and the central parity rate was depreciated by 43 points [27] - The US dollar index fell 0.55%, and most non - US currencies rose [27] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - In July, employment growth in multiple US industries turned negative, and if the three - month average of new non - farm payrolls remains below 100,000 after the release of August data, a September interest rate cut is likely [28] 3.4 Stock Market Key News - On Wednesday, A - share major indices rose, with semiconductor and other sectors performing strongly, and the market turnover increased [30] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose slightly, and southbound funds had a net purchase of nearly HK$9.5 billion [30] - As of August 6, 258 stocks had doubled in price this year, with Shangwei New Materials leading with over 12 - fold growth [30] - In July, the number of private equity securities product filings reached 1298, a month - on - month increase of 18%, hitting a 27 - month high [31] 3.5 Today's Reminders - On August 7, 209 bonds will be listed, 179 bonds will be issued, 134 bonds will be paid, and 192 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [29]