减产预期扰动，生猪盘面反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [9] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [10] - Hogs: Oscillating [11] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [15] - Cotton: Oscillating [16] - Sugar: Long - term: oscillating with a downward bias; Short - term: maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [17] - Pulp: Oscillating [18] - Logs: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [19] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It provides insights into their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and price outlooks. For example, the hog market shows a pattern of "weak present + strong future" due to policy - induced production - cut expectations; the oils and fats market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward bias considering overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic export expectations [11][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - Industry Information: MPOA data shows a 9.01% month - on - month increase in estimated Malaysian palm oil production in July. The overall estimated production is 1.84 million tons. ITS and AmSpec data indicate a decline in July's Malaysian palm oil exports [8]. - Logic: Due to the expected high yield of US soybeans and concerns about demand, US soybeans fell on Tuesday. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with soybean oil being stronger. The global and domestic supply - demand situation of different oils varies, with soybean oil having inventory increases and export expectations, palm oil facing inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil having high inventory [8]. - Outlook: In the short - term, palm oil and soybean oil are likely to be stronger, influenced by the expected increase in overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic soybean oil export expectations [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - Industry Information: On August 6, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different trends. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing increased [9]. - Logic: Internationally, the good growth of US soybeans and the expected high yield, along with changes in trade relations and CFTC net short positions, affect the market. Domestically, in the short - term, due to the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. In the long - term, there is a potential supply gap in the fourth quarter [9]. - Outlook: In the next two weeks, the inventory of soybean meal may reach a peak. Spot and basis prices may oscillate at a low level. The far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [9]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - Industry Information: The average domestic corn price and the closing price of the main contract decreased [10]. - Logic: On the supply side, there are differences in the judgment of channel inventory, and the auction transaction rate of imported corn is low. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grains is low. Policy - wise, the transaction rate and premium of imported corn are decreasing [10]. - Outlook: In the short - term, there is uncertainty in the old - crop inventory reduction. After the new - crop is listed, there is a downward pressure on prices [10]. 3.1.4 Hogs - Industry Information: On August 6, the spot price of hogs in Henan decreased slightly, while the futures closing price increased [11]. - Logic: The proposed meeting by the China Animal Husbandry Association to discuss sow production cuts triggered market sentiment. In the short - term, large - scale farms are actively reducing weight and inventory, but the inventory of secondary - fattening by smallholders is high. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, policies may lead to a reduction in production capacity [11]. - Outlook: The hog market shows large fluctuations. The spot and near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month contracts are influenced by production - cut expectations [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - Industry Information: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone remained stable, and the prices of raw materials in the Thai market increased slightly [13]. - Logic: The macro - environment is favorable, and there is some speculative sentiment in the market. The supply is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable in the short - term [13]. - Outlook: In the short - term, it follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - Industry Information: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different trends [15]. - Logic: The BR futures rose slightly, driven by natural rubber and the macro - environment, and supported by the tight supply of butadiene. However, the fundamental driving force is not clear [15]. - Outlook: It will generally maintain an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - Industry Information: As of August 6, the number of registered warrants and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton increased slightly [16]. - Logic: In the 2025/2026 season, the global cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. The price is oscillating within a range [16]. - Outlook: It will oscillate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread [16]. 3.1.8 Sugar - Industry Information: On August 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar decreased [17]. - Logic: In the long - term, the new season is expected to have a loose supply. In the short - term, the supply pressure will increase due to the peak production and export season in Brazil and the concentrated import in China [17]. - Outlook: In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias. In the short - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - Industry Information: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong remained stable or decreased slightly [18]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated at a low level. The supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. However, the recent increase in domestic broad - leaf pulp prices is worth noting [18]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate widely, and attention can be paid to the low - absorption long - matching opportunity when the main contract falls to 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - Industry Information: After the first - month delivery of logs, the short - term fundamentals changed little [19]. - Logic: The new foreign quotation has increased, but the domestic market is in the off - season. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the supply pressure is gradually easing [19]. - Outlook: The market is intertwined with multiple factors. It is recommended to operate within the range of 800 - 850, and the industrial side can participate in hedging according to its own costs [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report also mentions data monitoring for various products such as oils and fats, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not provided in the text [22][53][72].